Map Drop Experiment w/ 70's and 71's

After a venting session on global about my continued bad RNG sustaining 73/74 maps, a member suggested I just do an experiment. Collect 50 maps in one tab, and place the resulting maps into other tabs (-1+ tab, same level tab, +1 tab, +2 tab).

I think this is a great idea. It's also something to do while I work up enough funds to buy some stuff.

I don't have 50 73/74 maps, or even 71/72.... But I do have 70/71... Not a GREAT way to test this, but hey, I can always do this again with higher level maps.

Because these are low-level, I just trans/aug and alt on phys reflect (my build can't take it atm). I'll use MF gear (not that it matters for map drops, but just so it's not a complete waste of my time), so might take a night or two, but I'll share results here.


Edit: This is not conclusive, nor is it meant to be. It's just a bit of anecdotal fun. We also get to see a bit of distribution for the randomly drawn maps. I've seen plenty of speculation in Global that there is a downward pressure on the map level drop. 50 isn't a lot of runs (which is why I'll probably repeat this at some point or just keep going if I find it is entertaining) but it's enough to hint at whether this is an even drop distribution, tailed, etc.

Couple of other things I'm logging:
Maps that dropped no Maps:9
Maps that dropped 3+ Maps:8
Maps that dropped Maps but 0 Same Level + Maps: 4
Maps that dropped Maps and 2+ Same Level + Maps:7
Master Encounters: 15
Zana Encounters: 5

Isn't it assumed that, at least for lvl 72+ maps, you should run them yellow (ot unid blue or w/e) rather than just transmute and go?

I love your enthuisasm, shame your test will be pointless and won't prove anything :/

Above a certain point, yes, alch-ing is the way to go. Where that point is now... I dont know.

And while I'm not sure how much the drop rates have changed (a portion of the reason for this exercise which could affect the answer to your question), remember that 72's are effectively the old 70's...

In the old 70's I rarely used to alch and go (at least, once I got to a certain point). The map pool that they pulled from was small enough that I'd expect to get enough drops to sustain that level without the extra currency burned. A 70's map used to be able to drop 66-72 (or 71 if you don't want to consider bosses, rares, uniques). picking randomly from that pool you'd get pretty close to that 70 map level assuming a random draw.

I made the same assumptions for the current exercise (70-71 can drop from 68-71/72 not counting bosses). Coupled with the fact that there are certain mods I can't yet run in my junk gear (phys reflect, blood magic, temp chains with super damage mods, -max res with ele reflect, etc) meant the cost of alching and going, was probably 80+ alchs (and 80 maps) or 50 alchs + 15 chaos and my current 50 maps.

Besides, these are still fairly low-level... 70-71 are the old 68 and 69... At this point in league you could buy 68 and 69 for an alch... possibly more than one for an alch...

Historically 73+ for me was alch and go. 1.) extra map drops 2.) extra items, both for regal and for chaos recipe 3.) nearly all items can get most of their t1's (yes, yes, I know. Flaring is 77 blah blah blah. I'm saying most...).

All of that still holds true, I think... So yes, if/when I repeat with 73/74's it would be an alch and go.

"

KillerB wrote:

I love your enthuisasm, shame your test will be pointless and won't prove anything :/

Nothing is conclusive with RNG. Even with very large sample sizes, nothing is truly repeatable given the rates we're talking about with much of the RNG-driven drops. Indicative is all I'm going for, really.

Besides... I'd be doing this anyway, so why not log it and have some fun?

Indicative results are always good! Looking forward to the results!

Nearly done. Just 5 more to go, but probably won't finish tonight.

Summary after 45 maps:

Lower Level Maps: 34
Same Level Maps: 33
+1's: 18
+2's: 6

Right now, I don't know that 45 maps gave me much of a chance to jump to a +2 pool, but it has provided a decent +1 pool (remember that I can always recipe the lower level and same level maps to bolster my +1 pool).

What I really meant by that. is unless you take all your maps tier them by map level/map base (like 50X68 dungeon, 50X71 shore ...) you will get false result for the map drop rates, surely it won't be big difference between 70-71 maps but someone who will run 76 maps will find your data unusable.

P.S. The amount of maps that are your input are waaay waaaaay too low in a game so RNG ridden, also the map bases are all over the place (every map base has a different mapdrop rate, since more mobs = more loot).

P.P.S.: I'm not saying you are doing anything bad, but if you see anyone quoting this thread as an example of "drop rates are bad, go boost it GGG" you might think that you should have done things differently in retrospect.

GL out there anyways. :D

A very interesting thread. However it would be more interesting if somebody does the same with 73/74 maps.
The past days I ran a lot of those, trying the so-called '74-map-wall'.
Since I made my way up to 77 maps solo back then in Anarchy, when we still had to roll the Mazes and Map Size Mods on the maps ourselfes, I didn't believe in walls and gating. It all is just depends on your grinding.
However this time I got proven wrong (or just rekt by RNG). I blew a lot of my 73 and all my 74-75 maps with almost no return. That is, considering I am chisel/alching the 74+ (sometimes even chaosing) and alting the 73 to the desired Mods (magic monsters, sometimes rare monsters, pack size modifies and high item quantity ofc). Also i ALWAYS kill the Unique Boss for the extra map chance.
Now I dont want to make a typical QQ out of this, let's just see how it went for me today: I did about 2 74s and 4 73s and got this in return:


By the sheer amount of maps I got in return I can't think of myself doing something wrong with the way I am rolling maps. I get the maps to drop, I just don't get them on a decent level. However there is just nothing I could do to improve that. It feels a little demotivating... And suddenly the new and fun content feels very gated by RNG, cause I just cannot proceed even though i am obliterating 68-74 maps and doing everything else right (imo that is). Probably with the changes to map drops you now HAVE to get a mapping party to be able to do the hardest of mod combos, just to get even more maps dropping.
Now you could say that above 6 maps I just played are barely a sufficient samplesize, however as stated it was like that for quite a couple days. I must have played around 100 maps without any real progression in maplevel, even though I found a lot of maps. Actually I find so many of these I can ALMOST REPLENISH MY 73 MAP POOL BY VENDORING 71 AND 72 MAPS FOR THE +1 RECIPY!! Is that really working as intended?
Sure, in the end I will keep struggling and will hopefully make my way up eventually like I did back in Anarchy League, however I fear a lot of ppl that do not play PoE this long already might get driven away by the really horrible feeling of RNG-gating.


tl;dr: The chance of getting a map with a level on par/+1 at a lvl 73/74 map feels shitty and as such making maps drop seems not to be enough, you also have to be very lucky for a decent level ---> feels gated by RNG.

"

prescben wrote:

Nearly done. Just 5 more to go, but probably won't finish tonight.

Summary after 45 maps:

Lower Level Maps: 34
Same Level Maps: 33
+1's: 18
+2's: 6

Right now, I don't know that 45 maps gave me much of a chance to jump to a +2 pool, but it has provided a decent +1 pool (remember that I can always recipe the lower level and same level maps to bolster my +1 pool).

lets look at some stats before we pollute this thread too much with fud and opinion.

total quantity of maps run: 45

of the maps returned, 37% were lesser maps, 36% equal maps, 20% +1, and 6% + 2

so 26% of the total map pool results are better, 75% same or worse.

of the same or worses, we can infer that they will eventually accumulate over time
to the point where one can vendor 3 copys for a +1. given this eventuality:

34 lower maps/3 = 11 same maps.

since there were already 33 same maps, the total same maps is now 33+11 = 44

using the same inference, one can vendor groups of 3 maps again resulting in
44/3 = 14.5 better maps (+1 level of starting maps)

therefore out of 45 maps, one yeilds (14.5 + 18 + 6) / 45 = 86% return
by quantity input, of higher level maps (some of which are +2)

input 100 maps, get 85 better maps as a result (after vendoring up the lesser maps)
trading 100 lvl 70 maps, and getting 85 maps that are 71, or 72

I would presume that the propensity for a lvl 78 map to generate a +1 map
is equal to the propensity of a lvl 70 map to generate a +1 map, this may not
be the case.

a sample size of 45 is smallish, but does seem to draw out a good approximation of
average yeilds if the OP is honest. I would not expect to see a repeat of this
experiment to result in much of a difference. The true stats could have the return
rate at 75% to 90%, one can work with estimates. just consider this an indication
of how the trend works.