One Month Flashback Event (Hardcore)
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Quite easily... if you have 1.5% chance everyday then... you have 1.5% chance of getting in the beta at any given time that players are chosen during the duration of the event. The system already accounts for those that own a beta key so you will always have a 15 out of 1000 chance to win. 15/1000=.015 or 1.5% Your chance to win is a constant. Your chance of winning does not increase over time. Like flipping a coin, just because you flipped tails 3 times in a row does not mean you have a better chance of flipping heads the next time. Dont normally like to correct people...only cant stand arguments when both sides are so so wrong. Already bought my beta, but i'm hyped for this race!!!! Last edited by XtraBeefy on May 5, 2015, 4:24:22 PM
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Was just looking at some gaming news and came across this: http://www.mmorpg.com/newsroom.cfm/read/34707/Find-a-Way-Into-the-Next-Heart-of-Thorns-BetaLiterally.html
GW2 is doing beta invites for their upcoming beta by making them random drops within the game. I think that would be an awesome way to handle it in the league(maybe in addition to the top 1000 drawing?). Set it so that it can drop anywhere from normal mud flats onward, with scaling % based on level of area(so it drops more often in higher level areas)... Make people actually play and be part of the game if they want to get into the beta. | |
" This here ^^^^ Since the draw pool(1000) and winners(15) are constants, how can your chances improve over time, lol. Last edited by MyH4o on May 5, 2015, 4:24:11 PM
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" Im pretty sure thats what i said :/ | |
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:/
Race Hype! Last edited by XtraBeefy on May 5, 2015, 5:59:33 PM
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" You are 100% incorrect. Let me give you a simple example since you like the coin flipping idea. You and I can both agree that the probability of flipping tails on a coin 10 times in a row is pretty small. Although, if we use your logic it is simply a 1:2 chance no matter how many times we've flipped the coin before. Well you're partially correct the outcome doesn't actually change it is still a 1:2 chance, but the probability that the 10th flip will be heads does change. And thanks to math we can actually figure it out. If say we wanted to know the probability of at least flipping heads one time in 10 flips. So for any flip there is a 1/2 (or 50%) chance that you will get heads. Now if you repeat that ten times you get a probability equation that looks like: P(flipping heads) = 1-(1/2*1/2...) or 1-(1/2)^10 = 1023/1024 = 99.9% So there is still a chance that it will be tails again, but the probability is small. This is something you can actually test flip a coin 10 times and count the number of times every flip (on a balanced coin) comes up tails. My guess is it will be some small number approaching the mathematical probability. |
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" You're more correct than the other guy but parts of what you said don't make sense. I'm guessing you just worded it poorly, as you seem to understand it as opposed to the others. " Your chances of getting drawn each individual day will (granted that you are in the top 1000 and havent been drawn yet) be 15/1000. Your cumulative chance of getting drawn at least once will obviously improve the more days you participate in the draw. Last edited by stromming on May 5, 2015, 5:26:41 PM
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I go every day outside .. but since some years i fear to go outside .. because the chance to hit by a car will improve by every day i don't get hit by a car ..
Pff .. | |
" While your cumulative chance of getting hit indeed will increase for each day you go outside, I think that may be an overreaction. Just look both ways before crossing the road and you should be fine. |
