Odds on rolling specific colours on a 6-link

Captain math saves the day:

EventA_chance*EventB_chance=Total_chance

So:

If 1 socket has a chance of 10% to roll
5 other have have 50% chance each to roll

Total chance is:
0,5^5*0,1=calculate it yourself cuz I'm lazy.

You have to remember tho that this combination can happen for every other socket, thus your chance will be 6 times this big. So:

6*0,5^5*0,1=6*calculated

AVERAGE (not guaranteed) number of chromes (trials) needed would be: Number_of_chromes=1/chance. (where chance is a number from 0 to 1).

It is quite possible that I missed something, since I'm not thinking all that deeply about it, but it should give you an idea how stuff works.

No need to thank me.

The basic math is easy enough, that's not the problem. It's the fact that there's an unknown weighting involved against off-colours which is the issue. Like the time I tried getting an armour-based 4-link to give me four blue sockets and went something like 15 - 16 times over the natural odds trying to unsuccessfully land it. To that point in time I had no idea about the weighting system being applied - I found about it the hard way.That's the issue, in that no one really knows for certain what the probabilities are in certain circumstances, which makes it very very difficult to make an informed judgement regarding whether a particular exercise is worth the effort or too foolhardy to attempt.

It would be nice if they could give us a basic guide that doesn't necessarily give away the exact formula's being used, simply some basic kind of tool that can help an individual make a long term and potentially game-saving decision on pursuing a certain outcome. In actuarial terms there's virtually nothing you can't break down statistically in the real world, which is how insurance companies balance out the probability of outcome versus liability. Here in the whacky world of Wraeclast much is seemingly hidden, well-guarded, and has little to do with the mathematics of the real world at times.

Will all that said, my little exercise proved very anticlimactic. I set aside a few hundred chromes to work on the LC I just bought, and landed the RRRRBG I was looking for after using only five chromes! That's a load off!