Devs - what is the chance of a link between any two sockets?

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jawsofhana wrote:

This is explained elsewhere, but 5 link is only hard to make if you try to do it on a six socket item.

You're backwards. Odds to get a 5L on a 6S are better than on a 5S item (1:46 on a 6S, 1:61 on a 5S). A 6S gives you a 2nd chance to roll 5L if it rolls 0 links on the first socket (which is about 30% of the time).

Formulas are as follows:
5S odds = 1 / (5 / 305)
6S odds = 1 / (5 / 306 + (100 / 306 * 5 / 305))

That said, you're way more likely to see a 5L in the wild drop on a 5S item than a 6S item, as 5S items are 5 times more common than 6S items.

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Alisia261 wrote:

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jawsofhana wrote:

This is explained elsewhere, but 5 link is only hard to make if you try to do it on a six socket item.

You're backwards. Odds to get a 5L on a 6S are better than on a 5S item (1:46 on a 6S, 1:61 on a 5S). A 6S gives you a 2nd chance to roll 5L if it rolls 0 links on the first socket (which is about 30% of the time).

Formulas are as follows:
5S odds = 1 / (5 / 305)
6S odds = 1 / (5 / 306 + (100 / 306 * 5 / 305))

That said, you're way more likely to see a 5L in the wild drop on a 5S item than a 6S item, as 5S items are 5 times more common than 6S items.

No, but you might get the links required for 5-link item, but the last link is in the wrong place.

Behold my artistic skills. And see the five link:

o-o
|
o-o
|
o

This is the same amount of links on a 6-socket:

o-o
|
o-o

o-o

But the lower one is horizontal. Which means every time the '5-link' procs. You have a 50% chance it will be the wrong way. This can not happen if you use it on a five-socket.

Haha, I rememeber that. We were trying to crunch numbers for data we didn't have for at least an hour.

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jawsofhana wrote:

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Alisia261 wrote:

"

jawsofhana wrote:

This is explained elsewhere, but 5 link is only hard to make if you try to do it on a six socket item.

You're backwards. Odds to get a 5L on a 6S are better than on a 5S item (1:46 on a 6S, 1:61 on a 5S). A 6S gives you a 2nd chance to roll 5L if it rolls 0 links on the first socket (which is about 30% of the time).

Formulas are as follows:
5S odds = 1 / (5 / 305)
6S odds = 1 / (5 / 306 + (100 / 306 * 5 / 305))

That said, you're way more likely to see a 5L in the wild drop on a 5S item than a 6S item, as 5S items are 5 times more common than 6S items.

No, but you might get the links required for 5-link item, but the last link is in the wrong place.

Behold my artistic skills. And see the five link:

o-o
|
o-o
|
o

This is the same amount of links on a 6-socket:

o-o
|
o-o

o-o

But the lower one is horizontal. Which means every time the '5-link' procs. You have a 50% chance it will be the wrong way. This can not happen if you use it on a five-socket.

I never made that connection. I guess I should be rolling my 5 socket bow instead of 6 since I don't really need 5 support gems on it right now.

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gw_epyon wrote:

I never made that connection. I guess I should be rolling my 5 socket bow instead of 6 since I don't really need 5 support gems on it right now.

That's what I do. I first make a 5-link from a five socket item, then I have another six socket lying around on which I just sink every fusing I get after that.

Never actually made a six link though. Other people have made the above statistics. But I've made several five links.

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jawsofhana wrote:

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gw_epyon wrote:

I never made that connection. I guess I should be rolling my 5 socket bow instead of 6 since I don't really need 5 support gems on it right now.

That's what I do. I first make a 5-link from a five socket item, then I have another six socket lying around on which I just sink every fusing I get after that.

Never actually made a six link though. Other people have made the above statistics. But I've made several five links.

I made a 6L by luck alone once. Got a good chest piece, and it started with just 1 socket. I was just gonna use Jewelers' Orbs until it turned into a 4 Socket (just to replace the same gems I had in my previous one). Used 3 Jewelers' Orbs and I got a 6 socket. Used 2 Fusing Orbs... and BAM! they all linked. Pure luck.

Hello everyone, thread necromancer here.

So what are the chances to get a 5L on a 5s item? And 5L on a 6s? 6L on a 6s?

I can't figure it out from this thread, and what I ultimately want to know is how many fusings till a pretty much guaranteed (up to 95% probability) 5L or a 6L happens.

I'm having a difficult time counting up how many different links can happen, not sure of what the possibilities are.

Trying to apply this simple logic, if you've got a 4s item, there's 4 possibilities of 2L, 4 of 3L, and 4 of 4L, then 2 possibilities of 2x 2L, or no links. Therefore 15 possibilities in total. Wouldn't that mean 4/15 chance to get 2L, 2/15 to get 2x 2L, 4/15 for 3L and 4/15 for 4L?

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Alisia261 wrote:

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jawsofhana wrote:

You're backwards. Odds to get a 5L on a 6S are better than on a 5S item (1:46 on a 6S, 1:61 on a 5S). A 6S gives you a 2nd chance to roll 5L if it rolls 0 links on the first socket (which is about 30% of the time).

5S item has a 1:61 (one in 46) chance in rolling 5 socket. Just over 2% chance per fusing. If my maths is right it's about 31 fusings for a slightly better than 50% chance of getting a 5L on a 5S and about 49 fusings for an 80% chance. My maths is probably wrong though lol.

Doesn't seem to say 6L chance in this thread but it is definitely biased against 6L rolling in game. In CB it was said roughly 200 fusings to roll a 6L, though you could get it in 1 or in 1000, randomness as it is.

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Sir_LogiC wrote:

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Alisia261 wrote:

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jawsofhana wrote:

You're backwards. Odds to get a 5L on a 6S are better than on a 5S item (1:46 on a 6S, 1:61 on a 5S). A 6S gives you a 2nd chance to roll 5L if it rolls 0 links on the first socket (which is about 30% of the time).

5S item has a 1:61 (one in 46) chance in rolling 5 socket. Just over 2% chance per fusing. If my maths is right it's about 31 fusings for a slightly better than 50% chance of getting a 5L on a 5S and about 49 fusings for an 80% chance. My maths is probably wrong though lol.

Doesn't seem to say 6L chance in this thread but it is definitely biased against 6L rolling in game. In CB it was said roughly 200 fusings to roll a 6L, though you could get it in 1 or in 1000, randomness as it is.

I get a 60% chance with 49 fusings starting with a 2% chance to get 5L on 5s based on 0.02*49-(.98^49)

Hrmm. 1/61 = 0.0163934. Ah yeah ok I see my mistake, used the wrong figure initially and edited my post, forgot to fix that, the ~2% is from 1/46.