Mirror of Kalandra

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jsuslak313 wrote:

If there were 10s of thousands of players crafting or otherwise buying mirror-tier or even near-mirror gear.........the numbers of players who have beaten the game and beaten pinnacle bosses would be MUCH MUCH higher than they are.

What was the latest numbers released? Less than 3% of players have beaten the Shaper?

3% of what tho? of total players in a specific league? total players who have ever played the game?

theres 10s of millions of accounts in this game, and theres many millions of accounts that log in every league. so 3% of what? its presumably not 3% of peak steam users on steam charts.

^I think you are SEVERELY over-estimating both the number of players and the number of mirrored copies.

There is most certainly NOT millions of people playing PoE lol. Even if we were to assume that every month, every WEEK was an entirely brand new set of players (using PoE steam numbers), that STILL wouldn't equal even close to a million, let alone millions.

There's also the data that we KNOW about players clearing certain content being in the extremely small % which I mentioned. When you have that level of gear, its not even about the mechanics anymore, you slap on that gear and can equip nearly any skill and kill everything with no issues. The clearance rate across all of PoE would be significantly higher.

I used peak players precisely BECAUSE its a bad metric. A HUGE over-estimation of the true number of players who are currently playing. To say there are 5x+ the PEAK number, playing the game....is just bad math.

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jsuslak313 wrote:

^I think you are SEVERELY over-estimating both the number of players and the number of mirrored copies.

There is most certainly NOT millions of people playing PoE lol.

no, there really is. theyve talked about the data, chris talked about the drops in player counts when the game was getting a lot of flak a few years back, that their revenue dropped by i believe 1/3 because of people not playing the game. he said that even those leagues that were the worst performing leagues in recent history had multiple millions of people playing them.

the player peak from last year is over 60% higher than those leagues.


belton kept track of the copies he made of his bow, im telling you he made over 1000 copies of that bow alone and he didnt even finish the bow til over half way through the league.



its not bad math, its stated numbers by the devs.

^There is zero chance that is true.

D4 has only sold a little over 10 million copies total. No matter the reputation of the game, it is in a league of its own player-wise when compared to a "small" game like PoE. Assuming EVERY SINGLE PERSON who bought D4 is still playing it, thats only 10 million-ish people. D3: 30 million total copies sold across 10 years.

There is absolutely no way in hell that PoE numbers are even remotely close to that, let alone HIGHER than that.

I would love to see the video where CW says "millions" of people are currently playing PoE.

You are talking AAA gaming territory here, which GGG and PoE are most certainly NOT a part of.

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jsuslak313 wrote:

^There is zero chance that is true.

D4 has only sold a little over 10 million copies total. No matter the reputation of the game, it is in a league of its own player-wise when compared to a "small" game like PoE. Assuming EVERY SINGLE PERSON who bought D4 is still playing it, thats only 10 million-ish people. D3: 30 million total copies sold across 10 years.

There is absolutely no way in hell that PoE numbers are even remotely close to that, let alone HIGHER than that.

I would love to see the video where CW says "millions" of people are currently playing PoE.

You are talking AAA gaming territory here, which GGG and PoE are most certainly NOT a part of.

chris said that, its out there, i heard him say it.

blizzard said over 10 million people had played D4 back in june last year, thats in the first month of release. thats a $70 game, this is F2P.


this is a quote from blizz on D3

Diablo III, released in May 2012, had an even bigger launch, selling over 3.5 million copies in its first day. It had crossed the 30 million mark by August 2015, with Rod Fergusson saying last year that the game had attracted “over 65 million players” (not pure sales).


a game like valorant has over 10 million players per month.

a couple thoughts:

Fair about enough interactions and people TRYING and giving up on mirror economy stuff is probably somewhere in there. I am personally directing my attention to that tiny segment that controls it and regularly absues/takes advantage of the ability to brute force items into mirror tier.

Chris has semi recently stated POE has over a million actual "active players". Having over 200k concurrency on steam and an all time peak concurrency of roughly 350k (tweated by GGG) between the standalone and steam, this makes perfect sense statistically.

Anyway to me the interesting discussion is how much better could POE's ground loot be if there was no high end crafting. The answer for me is readily available in Ruthless mode (well practically anyway as these exist "technically") where the ground loot never stops mattering if you care about standard at all (which I do, and anyone who ever wants to finish a character would pretty much have to) and takes a ridiculous amount of time even for temp league only minded no life players to start ignoring rares. If only they hadn't gone scorched earth on everything else in that mode.

Fine, lets accept theres at least 1 million active players. Heck, lets bump that up to 2 million. I definitely don't believe thats truly the number, but lets do taht.

3% of that population is 60k players who have beaten a pinnacle boss. DEFINITELY not all of them are running mirror-tier gear, as you hardly need anything better than an essence crafted rare to actually get through red maps and shaper. so lets drop that number in half (being HUGELY generous). 30k players to work with.

Now lets look at the market. Currently in league, there are less than 400 (online AND offline) rare items "cost" a mirror or more. About half of them are completely fake entries, so that gets cut to about 200 items. Some are not even crafts, or otherwise mispriced goods, so cut that in half again. 100 items (generous, again) of mirror-tier. Half of these items are the mirrored items themselves being resold, so again cut that in half to about 50 realistic mirror-able items.

There are not 30,000 players interacting with these 50 items. It is simply not happening. Perhaps over the ENTIRE lifetime of a mirror-tier item, a thousand players may interact with it (like you said with Belton). But the actual, day to day, crafters and mirror-ers is significantly lower than that. In the hundreds, if not less than that.

And that's estimating on the high side at every step of the way.

Plus....that isn't even counting the folks who, in standard, will mirror an item, get tired of it, sell it to bankroll a different build, and then go back and mirror THE SAME item when a year later, they want to try a new build around that item. I know I have done that on numerous occasions in standard back when I used to mess around, and I'm sure I'm not the only one.


The number of players ACTIVELY operating at the mirror-tier level, through both league play AND standard, through NEW crafting and buying (not RETAINING), is not anywhere near the 10s of thousands. MAYBE, just maybe, 10s of thousands across the entirety of PoE's existence.....but not actively.

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alhazred70 wrote:

a couple thoughts:

Fair about enough interactions and people TRYING and giving up on mirror economy stuff is probably somewhere in there. I am personally directing my attention to that tiny segment that controls it and regularly absues/takes advantage of the ability to brute force items into mirror tier.

yeah i misunderstood you, by interacting with it you meant actually making mirror items. a few 100 is probably being generous there if anything, maybe less than 100 even? its a rly small group. i was thinking interacting with the entire system including mirroring those items or buying mirrored copies etc.





with the crafting, i agree with a lot of what ur saying. i also think just bottom tier crafting harms it so much too tho.



^ this is me being poor right now, Ive been absolutely obliterating my chaos stocks and no really bothering to sell items for chaos. usually on standard i get a bit concerned when i dip below 5k chaos orbs.

why do we need that many? for rolling maps right? thats generally the use, between rolling maps and using map mods people are burning through 100s and 100s of chaos per day.

so how can a rare ring that drops on the ground have any expected value when i can pick up a white ring, alch it and then spam 300 chaos on it without giving a crap? 300 chaos is meaningless, i have tabs priced at 120 chaos that i turn off when i cant be bothered making 'small' sales.

a map takes a couple of minutes to run, i might have to chaos it 2 or 3 times and then i put a 2 or 3 chaos mod on it, i might be spending 3-6 chaos every few minutes just playing the game. how can any rare items be worth picking up when i can force spawn 100s of them at will any time i want and not even feel like it cost me anything worth talking about?




i think they see this now and thats why we wont have chaos, alterations etc in poe2. a chaos is essentially an annul/exalt in poe2, theres no scours to scour+alch spam. we just wont be able to force spawn 100s of rare items at will in poe. but they cant take that out of poe1 because the entire map rolling system falls apart.










with the numbers, i have no idea where to begin looking for the clip of chris saying that, its some point in the past 2 or 3 years probably on an interview with some streamers on youtube.

i looked through some figures offhand there and skyrim has sold 60 million copies, valorant was showing 12 million players half way through a month but its general stats were over 20 million players playing it in a month. i dont think its that much of a stretch for a f2p game like poe to be getting 3 million players over the span of a 3 month league. these numbers are gonna include multiboxing, bots, all sorts of stuff.

Well, okay then. Big W for Mark and Co!

Edit: For those who missed it

I really didn't mean to get all up in this argument this way, as it doesn't totally relate to the main point of the thread.

But since I'm invested, I do have two more comments.

PoE is not nearly as popular with the arpg crowd as you seem to think it is. In fact, it is quite widely known that PoE is an exceptionally polarizing arpg, attractive to a niche subset of players from all those other arpgs. Other games, like Last Epoch, the diablos, some of the other titles you mentioned that I'm less familiar with, are built FOR the masses. PoE on the other hand is built quite particularly AGAINST the masses. The devs of PoE take pride in this reputation, even if it results in lower player numbers. So the concurrent numbers of PoE players when compared to any of those other titles is probably significantly LESS than anything I've said so far.

Additionally, F2P titles are inherently LESS popular than bought-and-paid-for games. The "F2P" label is an instant turnoff for a wide swath of players, that really only goes one way. Whereas a lover of PoE will still buy new games that aren't F2P, players that regularly buy games aren't always likely to play a F2P game. It has the "cellphone game" connotation right off the bat, and the P2W connotation EVEN THOUGH we all know PoE isn't really P2W except stash tabs. It's just the outside perspective of a "F2P" game.

As lovers of PoE, we live in an insulated bubble of OTHER lovers and defenders of PoE. But compared to AAA titles and more homogeneous games, PoE only has a small FRACTION of the players.

You even alluded to ANOTHER issue: even IF CW stated there were 3 million+ active players, we KNOW that botting is a HUGE problem in this game. So take those 3 million "active" accounts and slash it WAYYYYYY down for all the bot farms and things coming out of China and other Asia servers. If trade difficulties are any indication of just how many bots there are....I'd say there might even be more bot accounts than actual live human accounts at any given time "active" in PoE.