Jeweler probability and socket color data

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IMDisappoint wrote:
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wyldmage wrote:

What these numbers mean:
300 jewelers on average to get a 6 socket item.


If I'm understanding the numbers correctly, the percentages WhiteBoy listed apply to dropped (and vendor-obtained?) items that are of high enough level to obtain six sockets.

Items that have jeweler's orbs used on them have no chance of rerolling the same number of sockets. This means the percentage chance of getting a large socket number would be higher than listed with the best chance coming from an item that has one socket.

Wouldn't that mean that the chance of rolling six sockets using a jeweler's orb on an item with a random non-six socket configuration would be

(100/305)(1/206)+(90/305)(1/216)+(80/305)(1/226)+(30/305)(1/276)+(5/305)(1/301) = .45% ?

or about one in 221.


Yes, this is absolutely the right way to think about it. Just for fun, I simulated a million jeweler rolls in Excel using the same assumptions. I came up with the following odds:

4-socket: 1 in 8
5-socket: 1 in 46
6-socket: 1 in 224

Believe it was just rounding that makes up the discrepancy between our numbers.
As I see it, it might be advantageous to increase the numbers in the crafting, but decrease the numbers on drop-rates.

More than 100 of any item to roll a perfect item can cause a lot of grief to the unlucky players using 200 and not hitting it. I think it is less problematic that the droprates are lower since people have no control over that anyway.

If you want to add a higher chance item I would still lower the droprate of jewelers to about 1/2 - 1/3 in total - including recipes - and increase the chance to hit a better number of sockets just to make it less grieving. A new item would however make the perfect item getting easier to hit less needed.
I appear to be living in "Romance Standard Time". That has to be good! :)
300 jewellers is nothing, you guys need to stop whining
its perfectly attainable to the casual gamer

(if you convert wealth you get way above 30 in one single chaos run that can be completed in <15mn with any decent char)

The fusing, on the other hand, is a different story.. (no recipe for 10 fusings, and 1:4 fusings to jewellers droprate doesnt help)
IgN: Dolpiff (8x Elem wander). Former CB ranger.
Pm me on forums or ig if I won an auction, or to claim an item of mine you won.
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dolpiff wrote:
300 jewellers is nothing, you guys need to stop whining
its perfectly attainable to the casual gamer

(if you convert wealth you get way above 30 in one single chaos run that can be completed in <15mn with any decent char)

The fusing, on the other hand, is a different story.. (no recipe for 10 fusings, and 1:4 fusings to jewellers droprate doesnt help)


A casual gamer will not clear the Maelstrom of Chaos.

A casual gamer will definitely not clear the Maelstrom of Chaos in under 15 minutes.

A casual gamer will not max quantity stats to come close to those drop rates.

ROFL_Meat | ROFL_Sorc | ROFL_Sausage
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Gafgarion wrote:
A casual gamer will not clear the Maelstrom of Chaos.

A casual gamer will definitely not clear the Maelstrom of Chaos in under 15 minutes.

A casual gamer will not max quantity stats to come close to those drop rates.
Why not? "Casual" doesn't mean "bad," nor does it refer to someone who won't play the entire game.
Closed Beta/Alpha Tester back after a 10-year hiatus.
Kiwi pets and Spark spam FTW.
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whiteBoy88 wrote:
Why not? "Casual" doesn't mean "bad," nor does it refer to someone who won't play the entire game.


I am not saying that casual players are bad. I am saying they are casual. They will not play hours upon hours every day. They will not sit down and strategize the best build. They will focus more on killing things, than making the best possible character they can. With the giant leap in difficulty, I think that a casual player will not be set up to handle it.

Perhaps average player is a better term. I do think that the average player will get to the Maelstrom of Chaos. I don't think that the average player will clear Chaos in 15 minutes.
ROFL_Meat | ROFL_Sorc | ROFL_Sausage
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Gafgarion wrote:


A casual gamer will not clear the Maelstrom of Chaos.

A casual gamer will definitely not clear the Maelstrom of Chaos in under 15 minutes.

A casual gamer will not max quantity stats to come close to those drop rates.




says who?
a casual gamer is someone who plays casually. not someone who doesn't know how to play. or someone who won't read the forum and ask questions//obtain methods to better there game.
for the last week i play maybe 1 hour every other day only and I can still farm chaos this way...

my qty stat isnt even maxed and I play gimp ranger class so i'm not close to being OP or anything

30 jewellers is low per run and normal farm rate (if you drop 1 chaos thats already 25 jewellers worth, 1 fusing=15, it goes fast)
IgN: Dolpiff (8x Elem wander). Former CB ranger.
Pm me on forums or ig if I won an auction, or to claim an item of mine you won.
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dolpiff wrote:
for the last week i play maybe 1 hour every other day only and I can still farm chaos this way...


I feel that what you did before this last week could be described as more active. Anyway, it appears that I have a different paradigm of a casual gamer and apologize for those I have offended.

I do not think the odds for things in this game are unreasonable. I do think they are unobtainable for some, but I feel it should be that way. If everyone that ever played this game got a 6 link armor, it would not be good.
ROFL_Meat | ROFL_Sorc | ROFL_Sausage
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Gafgarion wrote:
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dolpiff wrote:
300 jewellers is nothing, you guys need to stop whining
its perfectly attainable to the casual gamer

(if you convert wealth you get way above 30 in one single chaos run that can be completed in <15mn with any decent char)

The fusing, on the other hand, is a different story.. (no recipe for 10 fusings, and 1:4 fusings to jewellers droprate doesnt help)


A casual gamer will not clear the Maelstrom of Chaos.

A casual gamer will definitely not clear the Maelstrom of Chaos in under 15 minutes.

A casual gamer will not max quantity stats to come close to those drop rates.


But the same gamer deserves a 6 socket of his choice? Ignoring the fact that it's possible to buy one for much less, especially if it's not a level60 base, I fail to get your point.

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