[RNG] The only bad time to make a 6L...
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um.... can you give me now that 6L chest ? and then you can try another ...
.)))))))))))))))))) 120$ ARCTIC SUPPORTER
Black cat, Arctic portal, Arctic skull hatred, Arctic footprints, 2x Arctic Weapon, 20 skins, +3 tab |
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" If you give me 3.1k fuses and 60k scraps? Sure! " That's pretty much true. I wouldn't be surprised if the chance for manual 4l with 0 quality clocks in at 20.3% or so. " Several months for sure. Almost every single fuse I used came from Vorici. 20 fuses per day actually pile up if you have other things to do (and combined with elreon, you get a pretty nice discount). I've been doing master trades basically daily after they became available in 1.3. 3000 fuses / 20 fuses per day = 150 days = 5 months. Subtract the amount I find (or, occasionally, master trade) during leagues and it's a little less, but since I never was in a hurry, that time is totally fine. Just doing what you have fun doing is the best way to avoid frustration in a game where some things are out of your control. " Doesn't make sense. You need to understand that every single fuse has the same chance (once again there's a non-obvious caveat that I won't elaborate here). If it was a good idea to spend 1 fuse, then it's a good idea to spend the second one. And the third one. The only reason why you'd use vorici is risk of ruin: Running (permanently) out of fusings. But I get 20 fuses per day at a discount, it'd take another year or two (assuming I wouldn't make currency back). And I was in no rush. I could have gotten 4 6L easily in that investment. At no point in time would spending 1500 fuses be a profitable idea (unless you can predict the future, but I'd like to see proof for that). Rephrasing it once again: If you have the choice between spending 1500 fusings manually (with the very good chance to save some/a lot or, equivalently, get more 6L) or with Vorici, the former will always have a better average outcome unless you need it to happen within those 1500. But I didn't, I'd rather take those extra 6L. This sounds weird when you know the outcome, but I made the most profitable decision at every point in time based on the knowledge available to me at that point. Last edited by MauranKilom on Apr 17, 2015, 6:43:14 AM
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" That strategy prevents rage-quitting, frustration & QQ threads... which is ofc a purely psychological benefit. But using Vorici makes sense when you plan to link a small amount of items (1 or 2) and makes less and less sense the more items you plan to link (if we treat temp. leagues as discrete events). In your case you got totally screwed by rng, overpaying the average linking chance several times, even in comparison to Vorici. Through the course of <years> you might bring this down to average, but now you are seriously deep in red numbers. E: " This statement is 100% true only if you play PoE for an infinite amount of time. But statistically speaking, sure-shot Vorici is profitable with a small sample of items and get less and less profitable the more items you plan to link. When night falls She cloaks the world In impenetrable darkness Last edited by morbo on Apr 17, 2015, 7:08:16 AM
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True, I'm in red numbers. By a lot.
But should I have heeded the advice of a guildmate to just vorici it when I hit 3k? Apparently not. And that same argument applies to every single fuse before that. You're totally right about the temp league stuff (risk of ruin + time constraint is very real there). I like to think of it this way: You can't be lucky without trying to be lucky (can't win the lottery without buying tickets). Does me dropping a mjölner in torment relate to my fuse RNG? Not realistically. Does my bad luck compensate the insane chance of dropping a shavs in the first place? Doesn't mechanically make sense, they're all independent events. Yet the more opportunities you give RNG, the more "lucky" you can be. Which is just another way of stating "the expected savings is positive", but it's some deep psychological motive to attribute things to fate. I guess math helped me to not be psychologically affected by this. "It's cold hard RNG and I'm making rational decisions. There's nothing to get worked up about." Edit: " Well, if you have exactly 1.5k fuses, your only goal is to get a single 6L and you also can't sell the fuses, then yes, Vorici is more profitable. Especially the latter condition is generally not fulfilled though. Often it's also worth more to get the 6L earlier though, keep that in mind! (If the "prize" for a 6L is 4 x by the time you could spend 500 fuses, 2 x by the time you could spend 1k, 1 x when you could spend 1.5k and 0 x if you don't get it within 1.5k, then Vorici is still not a good option). Last edited by MauranKilom on Apr 17, 2015, 7:22:07 AM
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" At this point (3k fus in) I'd do the same - keep going. But I'd never get to this point, because I would use Vorici long before. This is ofc a purely personal preference. I despise socketing, linking and chroming, because I'm not a gambling person. Gambling away 3k fus into nothing, would most likely make me ragequit the game. So to avoid this frustration I approach 6-linking as I described in my first post. (I've used Vorici for 6L only once, but I've never used him for 5L, because I create a lot of 5Ls in all leagues I play and the price for it evens out with a large sample) When night falls
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Learn how to fuse better... all I can say...
The real hardcore PoE players and the elites sit in town and zoning in and out of their hideouts trading items. Noobs that don't know how to play PoE correctly, kill monsters for items. It's pure fact, it will never change.
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I never even tried to 6L. Got one by accident after like 40 fuse trying to 5L - otherwise I buy all my 6Ls outright. I pretty much hate RNG. It's like no goal... could take 40 400 or 4000 or more. So I shoot for goals. Like I know to make 75EX to buy a shavs.
Git R Dun! Last edited by Aim_Deep on Apr 17, 2015, 8:09:00 AM
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"Your loss, I found shavs in the 1M Torment/Bloodlines SC. I said 'fuck this' and I gave it away, the people who I gave it to 6L and corrupted it using ~700 fuse (The corruption did nothing) Last edited by Metronomy on Apr 17, 2015, 8:18:17 AM
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All this work to figure out a core mechanic of playing the game. Why exactly are the exact chances kept secret from us again?
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" Because every human feels good when they know they have something other people want. It feels good that other people want to know the details of a core mechanic, and if you tell them they will stop wanting to know. This message was delivered by GGG defence force.
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