[RNG] The only bad time to make a 6L...

...is after the equivalent of 7k fuses... Yep. Today it finally happened.




After getting incredibly lucky with the drop, things went slightly bad.


Investment:
> 3089 Fuses.
> 61780 Armourer's Scraps.


So why did I say 7k fuses? Because 20% quality "certainly more than doubles" the chance for a 6L. Turns out 20 scraps are cheaper than 1 fuse while working like more than one.


Because I'm that kind of guy, I collected every single result. You can check out the statistics over here (also check the other tabs at the bottom):
20% Fusing results!

How did I collect those?
* The first ~1.6k results I manually wrote down on a piece of paper, typing it up into the spreadsheet by hand. I stopped when the paper was full (didn't expect to spend that many fuses).
* Since that was really tedious (who would've guessed?), I wrote an AHK script that parses the item data when you hit Ctrl+C, collecting the results in a file.

I'll make that script publicly available soon.
I plan on starting a new fusing community log (both 0 and 20% quality). If you want, tell me what you think of that idea! Maybe there is also demand for quality jeweler results (since we know the 0 quality probabilities precisely)?


"OMG, why not just use vorici???"
If I knew beforehand it would take 70 ex to 6l my shavs, ofc. Nobody knows that though. And at any point in time (yes, even after 3k fuses spent without success), clicking those 1500 fuses manually (even without quality) will net you more than one 6L on average.
Since my risk of ruin was basically nonexistant, I could just keep going. Elreon+Vorici trades every day just make those fuses pile up, and I was in no rush.


Incoming LL Flicker CoC :)


(While making a timelapse would've been awesome, I only recorded a few portions of the process, more as proof of actually using those fuses with the recorded results. #MissedOpportunities)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6fxBYu4yVyk

Yep, lot of you guys had to balance my rng

:)

Was not cool when this newspost went up on the same day as I ran out of the initial 1.6k fuses I had saved up, and a mate also getting a 6l in 20 fuses.

But I don't take RNG personal and never actually was frustrated. I knew this could happen, and it simply happened. Working yourself up about it does nothing, and giving up was... not profitable?

Btw, according to my estimates, getting 3090 consecutive 20% ql fuses without 6l has a ~1% chance of happening. Yay?

One sample point. Cool. Now do it 100 more times and let us know the results.

"

Shagsbeard wrote:

One sample point. Cool. Now do it 100 more times and let us know the results.

Will do.

In the meantime, this data is very nice for estimating 5L (and lower link) chances.
Did you know that using Vorici's 4l service is, on average, better than trying yourself? You can extract that from my results.

Especially if you combine it with the 1.4k results from fusings I used on other 6s items...

You were super unlucky with the 5Ls too, given the supposed effect of quality on linking chance.
That sucks man.

Well, as it turns out, 5l chance is not actually improved nearly as much as 6L chance (technically nobody said it was).

It's still a 20-30% chance buff based on the data I've seen, but I don't have that much 0 ql data.

That sucks I guess, you would have been better off just giving away your shavs

Cant wait for community fusing log, Good job done here, thanks for sharing man.

"

Metronomy wrote:

That sucks I guess, you would have been better off just giving away your shavs

I would've been better off selling it right when it came to standard (~120 ex). It had more value then than it has now, even after being 6L'd...

It's my hand-dropped shavs though, it's not going to be sold. Ever. Even after what it did to me. :D