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So.... In english were is the % chance to roll a 6L ?
No answer to this?
According to his initial estimate the odds were 2/3^L where L=number of links. That's 2/729 for 6L.
He noticed a flaw in his method and it was looking like he might revise his estimate to 4/(L+1)! but he had insufficient data to extend the formula for L=5,6. That would have worked out to 1/1260 for 6L or 1/180 for 5L.
Last edited by PolarisOrbit on Aug 20, 2013, 8:12:03 PM
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Posted byPolarisOrbiton Aug 20, 2013, 8:10:19 PM
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So...is it easier to 5L off of a 5S or 6S??
I've heard people say 5L is easier on either a 5S or 6S, but never a definitive answer...
Also wondering how scraps/whetstones change this equation.
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Posted bymadtowndaveon Aug 20, 2013, 8:20:05 PM
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So...is it easier to 5L off of a 5S or 6S??
I've heard people say 5L is easier on either a 5S or 6S, but never a definitive answer...
Also wondering how scraps/whetstones change this equation.
According to the way Mark described it, you'd be better off with a 6s to get a 5l.
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Links aren't done individually. Starting at the first socket, there's a certain chance to link 6 sockects, a chance to link 5, a chance to link 4, etc. It rolls that chance and links that many sockets, then if there are still sockets left, it moves to the next one it hasn't linked yet and does this again.
Means with a 5s, you get once roll at getting 5 links. When you start with a 6s, you get 2 rolls.
Start with the first socket, roll links. Same chance at getting 5l as with a 5s. But, if you roll a 1 on the first socket, it moves to the second, where you get a second chance at 5l.
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Posted byBorukoon Aug 20, 2013, 8:52:36 PM
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So...is it easier to 5L off of a 5S or 6S??
I've heard people say 5L is easier on either a 5S or 6S, but never a definitive answer...
Also wondering how scraps/whetstones change this equation.
According to the way Mark described it, you'd be better off with a 6s to get a 5l.
"
Links aren't done individually. Starting at the first socket, there's a certain chance to link 6 sockects, a chance to link 5, a chance to link 4, etc. It rolls that chance and links that many sockets, then if there are still sockets left, it moves to the next one it hasn't linked yet and does this again.
Means with a 5s, you get once roll at getting 5 links. When you start with a 6s, you get 2 rolls.
Start with the first socket, roll links. Same chance at getting 5l as with a 5s. But, if you roll a 1 on the first socket, it moves to the second, where you get a second chance at 5l.
What if the roll for the first socket was 0 links? Couldn't you technically get a 5L roll on the 2nd socket? or even any of the other sockets, as long as they aren't linked.
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Posted bySupernova81786on Aug 20, 2013, 8:56:49 PM
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So.... In english were is the % chance to roll a 6L ?
No answer to this?
According to his initial estimate the odds were 2/3^L where L=number of links. That's 2/729 for 6L.
He noticed a flaw in his method and it was looking like he might revise his estimate to 4/(L+1)! but he had insufficient data to extend the formula for L=5,6. That would have worked out to 1/1260 for 6L or 1/180 for 5L.
from GGG comment, probability is less than 1/1200.
IGN TylordRampage Last edited by Malone on Aug 21, 2013, 3:55:20 AM
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Posted byMaloneon Aug 21, 2013, 3:54:43 AM
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from GGG comment, probability is less than 1/1200.
i had burn over 4700 fus on my vaal regalia didn't make it & sold it as 5l
it gone that far bcoz chest had 1041 es on it
i heard some guy spend over 6k & didn't make it
IGN: Cheap
The unending pain has left me strangely wretched
At one intoxicating glance, I lost my faith to you
My life is now a tale of the past Spent, sacrificed at the alter of the deity - you!
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Posted byimran_symbianon Aug 21, 2013, 6:25:01 AM
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from GGG comment, probability is less than 1/1200.
i had burn over 4700 fus on my vaal regalia didn't make it & sold it as 5l
it gone that far bcoz chest had 1041 es on it
i heard some guy spend over 6k & didn't make it
Then you can live happy knowing that somewhere some people got their 6L in just a few tries... ;p
--== Enjoying the game ==--
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Posted byTwiiikon Aug 21, 2013, 6:41:17 AM
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...if there are 5 sockets, and the first roll gets to link 2, then it'll roll again starting on the 3rd socket (and can't roll above 3, since there's only 3 sockets left).
So, if the first roll doesn't link everything, you're screwed, because the next roll(s) won't connect back? Besides that sucking, I really don't see a reason why that limitation was put in place to begin with.
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Posted bybug77on Aug 21, 2013, 6:58:33 AM
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from GGG comment, probability is less than 1/1200.
i had burn over 4700 fus on my vaal regalia didn't make it & sold it as 5l
it gone that far bcoz chest had 1041 es on it
i heard some guy spend over 6k & didn't make it
Then you can live happy knowing that somewhere some people got their 6L in just a few tries... ;p
i got 1 for 36 2nd for 56
3rd one eat 4.7k & 1k of them were boosted with 20% quality
IGN: Cheap
The unending pain has left me strangely wretched
At one intoxicating glance, I lost my faith to you
My life is now a tale of the past Spent, sacrificed at the alter of the deity - you!
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Posted byimran_symbianon Aug 21, 2013, 7:56:39 AM
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...if there are 5 sockets, and the first roll gets to link 2, then it'll roll again starting on the 3rd socket (and can't roll above 3, since there's only 3 sockets left).
So, if the first roll doesn't link everything, you're screwed, because the next roll(s) won't connect back? Besides that sucking, I really don't see a reason why that limitation was put in place to begin with.
I don't think that is the way it works. I think they can go backwards. In his example, the first 2 sockets linked from the first socket's roll, that is why it starts rolling again on the 3rd socket.
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Posted bySupernova81786on Aug 24, 2013, 2:35:52 PM
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