ZERO Veiled Orbs in 17 consecutive Catarina kills - regression since patch/hotfix?

17 straight Catarina kills, 16 in level 83 instance and last one in level 84. ZERO Veiled Orbs since the patch and hotfix.

This probability is beyond ridiculous. Did you stealth re-nerf the drop rate?

Assuming drop chance remains 25% and events are independent, probability to drop nothing is (1-0.25)^17 ~ 0.0075 = 0.75%. You are very lucky:)

Now on 18 straight kills and zero orbs. Why assume a 1/4 drop rate? Come on.

Thought I saw information it was 25% back when this drop was introduced, and no mention of nerf since. But anyway stealth nerfs won't be a surprise coming from GGG, they won't tell you time of day these times:)

I only know when they buffed the initial drop rate from the 3.24 launch depending on what tier you did Catarina to incentivize running in red tiers, but I never saw any official drop rate confirmed. There was a Discord group collectively tracking and came to around a 30% chance to drop in red tier maps, but that posted about 2 months ago and I have no idea the total count.

But I know plenty of people that have gone 20-25 kills before seeing a veiled orb this league and others who went 6 for 6. RNG be RNG. If you don't like the system, farm something more consistent until GGG changes Betrayal again.

So you don't know anything based on data, then cite different anecdotal small samples, then conclude it's RNG whilst referring to an assumed drop rate, and feel like it's constructive to tell me to farm something else if I don't like it. Yeah, thanks for your post, genius.

Facts: before 3.4.23 I saw about 1/4 or 1/5. This streak is so improbable, I'm thinking it's more likely they introduced a nerf with the patch or hotfix. I'm asking them to check their code cause it smells like a bug.

1 in 130 is not improbable at all. It's expected with thousands of players, and even just hundreds doing Betrayal that there'll be several people with same dry streaks.