Is POE crafting Rigged ? Like nerfing the chance of getting popular unveil

On craft of exile it show i have the highest odds of getting Trigger unveil on sceptre i also tried simulating and i always get it within 3 tries after blocking charges to maximize the odds. But on game i didnt get after 10 tries and broke my item yesterday and alt F4 my game . Today i unveil 6 tries and still did not get it and now suffix is Full and im scared to annul . Did GGG nerf the odds ? or did Craft of exile got it wrong ?

Statistically speaking there is no such thing as 'always getting it in 3 tries' unless there are only 3 variable outcomes. Tons of things could be at play here:

Either you got lucky on the sims

or you got unlucky in game

or you're misunderstanding what craft of exile is telling you (aka you set up the sims wrong)

or you're not following the exact craft in game that you set up in the sims

or GGG nerfed it (or took it out of the game entirely - always worth a check of the last couple patch notes)

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you're probably better off asking this in the daily discussion thread pinned on the reddit

I've gone 2/40 on a craft that should've been 1/4 chance each time. Sometimes RNG does not smile on you.

I once had to spend over 100 Chromes to get a single Red on a 4 socket pair of chain gloves.

Even assuming you had a 1 in 3, that can fail to happen a big chunk of the time.

1/3 is 77 failures in 100. Stats is a bitch.

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SingaporeExiles wrote:

On craft of exile it show i have the highest odds of getting Trigger unveil on sceptre i also tried simulating and i always get it within 3 tries after blocking charges to maximize the odds. But on game i didnt get after 10 tries and broke my item yesterday and alt F4 my game . Today i unveil 6 tries and still did not get it and now suffix is Full and im scared to annul . Did GGG nerf the odds ? or did Craft of exile got it wrong ?

Have you considered that maybe a third party crafting simulator might have it wrong?

By XKCD


/edit: I doubt that the crafting is rigged, in stead the "problem" sits in front of the computer.
The human mind is very bad when dealing with random events. The only option for random rolls to guarantee they fit the quotas (like 1/3) is having a infinite number of rolls. As long as you don't have them, there can always some extremes show up (in both ways).
I mean take a look at the usual chances for winning lotto. If you think about they are really shit, but still people manage to hit the jackpot.

A real crafting system wouldnt have so many convoluted layers of RnG. This whole system should be scrapped and updated for PoE2.

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Artaniz wrote:

1/3 is 77 failures in 100. Stats is a bitch.

Honest question but don't you mean 66/100? Or am I missing something embarrassingly basic?

LOL -- love this.