Timeworn and Vaal Reliquary Data

nice

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neohongkong wrote:

I don't play much Delve league so i can't tell. but Chris claim Vaal one is the most rare among the 3, i don't think so by how many it was dropped by myself by farming instead of buying

Well to be fair I was too limited in my response. I was referring to the rarity of the individual relics themselves not the rarity of the key drop. But because there were way more Timeworn types generated than Vaal ones, the answer is more nuanced.

If one can assume that the ratio of relics that reappear on standard was similar between Timeworn and Vaal relics, the following proportion should remain constant:

x*y/z = cte

with

x = total amount of peak players during league
y = frequency of keys that drop per monster killed (lets ignore quant on maps and penalties)
z = total amount of relics listed in Standard


Then one can conclude that

y_vaal/y_timeworn = (z_vaal * x_timeworn)/(z_timeworn * x_vaal)

I don't have a calculator here but x_timeworn/x_vaal is roughly 150/250 = 3/5

z_vaal = 18829
z_timeworn = 12138

Plugging this all in, gives y_vaal/y_timeworn = 0.93. Given all the approximations they had similar rarity. I could have given a much fairer number if I had the data from during Delve League.

If the data would be available, instead of peak players you could sum all xp gathered by everyone playing that league. Current data only shows top 15.000 but you can fit the tail although that would highly be incorrect as all data points are skewed to the left. Integrating curve would yield total xp.

the rarity of induvial relic are equally weighted according to announcement

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neohongkong wrote:

the rarity of induvial relic are equally weighted according to announcement

Yes relics of the same class, have the same drop weight. However a specific relic type of the Timeworn class is rarer than a specific relic type of Vaal class.

I'll give an example of what I meant with the following sentence 'I was referring to the rarity of the individual relics':

-> a relic Rigwald's Command (Timeworn) is rarer than a relic Timeclasp (Vaal).
-> a relic Rebuke of the Vaal (Vaal) is practically as rare as a relic Dream Fragments (Vaal).
-> a Timeworn Reliquary key drop was probably as rare as a Vaal Reliquary key drop.

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-> a relic Rebuke of the Vaal (Vaal) is practically as rare as a relic Dream Fragments (Vaal).

I don't think so

for Timeworn Reliquary

https://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/2197540

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All 151 have equal chances of being in the Reliquary.

(of course some relic is added mid-league so that they may rarer )

for Vaal Reliquary

https://youtu.be/52cm3aqo9Gw?t=388

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neohongkong wrote:

for Timeworn Reliquary

https://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/2197540

"

All 151 have equal chances of being in the Reliquary.

(of course some relic is added mid-league so that they may rarer )

for Vaal Reliquary

https://youtu.be/52cm3aqo9Gw?t=388

I am very much aware of the equal drop chance in both the Timeworn and Vaal pool of relic items. The Vaal Reliquary Key might have been a rarer drop but because a larger playerbase participated during Ultimatum league, more Vaal Relics were probably generated. On podcast with Zizaran and Mathil, Chris told us that a few million different accounts play recently. No data is available of the total population back in 2018. Steam is just a fraction.

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neohongkong wrote:

"

-> a relic Rebuke of the Vaal (Vaal) is practically as rare as a relic Dream Fragments (Vaal).

I don't think so

I am talking about the amount generated. If you generate for example balls which could either have white or black colour but with equal probability, the actual number of generated black/white balls will be different. The difference however goes to zero, the more balls are generated.

You use trade site data which is simply wrong. People can just throw the trash relic or don't list it


Buy a stat book and re-read it

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neohongkong wrote:

You use trade site data which is simply wrong. People can just throw the trash relic or don't list it


Buy a stat book and re-read it

I already stated there were a lot of assumptions here.

I also got my fair share of advanced stat books, so no idea, why you would get so offensive.