Five Orbs of Chance, Five Imperial Bows, 3 Lioneye's Glare

So yeah, I know this guy who made 3 Lioneye's in five attempts with chance orbs. This is over the span of 2 days. Can anyone that is good at math figure out the probability on that one?

I'd like to know exactly how many times I need to remind him how much I hate him.


If you'd like to help me reach my goal, feel free to express to him how much you highly dislike him as well by messaging him! IGN: quaffles

Thanks!

I will join you in highly disliking him.

Unless he gives me one of the Lioneye's.

This is probably somewhere in the range of 1 in one trillion chance.

I can imagine, but I'm not very good at math - who is!?!


And thank you in helping me in this endeavor.

Ive looted 2 in 4 weeks.

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Deux wrote:

Ive looted 2 in 4 weeks.

I've been trying to find one since OB. How do you people do this!?

K im not that lucky ...all i can say is that so far ive managed to 5l 5 items with minimum effort,i spended 2 fusings on a ilvl74 thicket bow and abou 20 fusings max on the other 4 armors all ilvl73+

Thing is after 2 weeks i still cant sell them and im poor as fuck

*drools*

"

decompose wrote:

Can anyone that is good at math figure out the probability on that one?

Since we don't have the probability for a chance to turn an imperial bow into a Lioneye's Glare, we can't.

The difference between a 1 in 100 and 1 in 150 is enourmous in a case like this, so any estimation would be way off anyway.

"

This is probably somewhere in the range of 1 in one trillion chance.

Not even close, using a probability of 1/400 (which I'm pretty sure is way smaller then the actual probability, but just to be safe. And even ignoring the fact that he missed 2 out of 5, the chance of rolling 3 in a row is 1 out of 64 million.

According to the community chance orb log, the rate of a unique is about 1 in 250 (0.004% chance). I don't know if that matches the actual code, but it's the only info I've seen so far.

1 in 250 and he hit 3 out of five, that's amazing.

NO, you fools, he just used the orbs on at the right time!
He waited for the clock to tick over to 00:00..works every time!