Question about Harness the Void (3.2 Trickster)

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Telperion_sr wrote:

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NoDiscoSisqoOrCalypso wrote:

Since other ppl seem to have questions abouer Harness the Void I´m gonna repost my question from the Trickster Thread here as well.


Can someone with an affinity for numbers and a talent for Stochastic do some quick mafs and tell me how likely it is to get all 3 Buffs from Harness the Void on 1 hit ?
I did my "own" maths and arrived at some fucking bullshit number.
Something like 0,003% chance that all 3 effects are gonna be procced on the same hit.

The chance that all three will proc is 20% * 15% * 10% or 0.2*0.15*0.1 = 0.3%
To find the average damage bonus, you need to look at all the possible outcomes and find a weighted average.
The chance that you will deal no extra damage is the opposite of the previous, 80% * 85% * 90% = 61.2%
Just the 50% is 20% * 85% * 90% = 15.3%
Just the 100% is 80% * 15% * 90% = 10.8%
Just the 200% is 80% * 85% * 10% = 6.8%
The 50% and 100% is 20% * 15% * 90% = 2.7%
The 50% and 200% is 20% * 85% * 10% = 1.7%
The 100% and 200% is 80% * 15% * 10% = 1.2%
All 3 Proccing is 20% * 15% * 10% = 0.3%

If you do a weighted average you get (1*0.612)+(1.5*0.153)+(2*0.108)+(3*0.068)+(2.5*0.027)+(3.5*0.017)+(4*0.012)+(4.5*0.003)

Spoiler

If you don't already know, weighted averages are done by multiplying the end result by it's chance of occurring. For this I multiply the total effective damage (i.e. 50% added as chaos is 1.5 damage) by its chance of occurring (50% added as chaos has a 15.3% chance of occurring alone, so I multiply 1.5 damage by 0.153). Once that is done, you can add them all together to get the total average.

For a total of 1.45x damage average.

Under the assumption that the rolls and their effects are independant, you don't need to look at the combinations. 0.2*50 + 0.15*100 + 0.10*200 = 45 mean extra damage

Im guessing that test rolls are not independant, but rather it will be some form of
"do you deal extra damage" and then "if so what category", not a chance of rolling into each category.

Thats at least my interpretation of how it looks.

My 2 cents
Matt.

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NoDiscoSisqoOrCalypso wrote:

Since other ppl seem to have questions abouer Harness the Void I´m gonna repost my question from the Trickster Thread here as well.


Can someone with an affinity for numbers and a talent for Stochastic do some quick mafs and tell me how likely it is to get all 3 Buffs from Harness the Void on 1 hit ?
I did my "own" maths and arrived at some fucking bullshit number.
Something like 0,003% chance that all 3 effects are gonna be procced on the same hit.

I believe that those 3 buffs can't occur at the same time. It will probably be like as if you were rolling a dice. First you roll the dice with a 20% chance to get the 50% extra chaos damage. If you get that buff you stop rolling the dice.

If you didn't get that 50% buff, you roll the dice another time with a chance of 18,75% to get the 100% buff. Chance you didn't get the 50% buff is 80% = 0,80. Chance to get 100% buff is 15%. 0,15 / 0,80 = 0,1875 * 100 = 18,75%.

If you get it you stop rolling the dice. If you didn't get that buff either you roll a third and last time. You now roll for the 10% chance to get the 200% buff.
Chance to get into 3rd roll phase is 0,80 * 0.85 = 0,68. 0,10 / 0,68 = 0,147 * 100 = 14,7%. 14,7% Chance to get that 200% buff in the 3rd phase.

NOTE: That is just my personal speculation. Telperion_sr's post also sounds very reasonable to me.

Personally I think its one roll

1-10 200%
11-25 100%
26-45 50%
46-100 normal

They can't stack and something happening is consistent

Still would love some clarification from the dev team please!

If they can stack and are independently rolled, it's 45%.
If it works like this:

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Reichugo232323 wrote:

Personally I think its one roll

1-10 200%
11-25 100%
26-45 50%
46-100 normal

They can't stack and something happening is consistent

Then it's still 45%.

The only way it's not 45% is if two can be rolled at once, but only the highest one counts.


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Because the mods are on seperate lines, we know that they are individual effects, so chances are they will be independent. And the only way they wouldn't stack that I can think of is if they actually give a buff, and all the buffs have the same name.

You know, this node with groundslam/heavy strike is guaranteed to perma-stun shaper. low chance to proc, but when it does...BAM! STUN!! All you have to worry about is ASPD.

So what is going to be the best damage conversion set up if it works as theorized with dipping each time?

Use a physical spell then phys to lightning -> Cold -> Fire?

Like Ground Slam for AoE / Heavy Strike for bosses linked with Physical to Lightning Support and Cold to Fire with Call of the Brotherhood thrown in? With maybe some extra conversion of phys thrown in?

Also maybe use Shroud of Lightness as an alternative to Queen of the Forest with all the elemental damage going on for when the Chaos conversion doesn't actually proc?

Yoke of Suffering would also be BIS I am assuming since biscos is nerfed.

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3rdEyeDeuteranopia wrote:

So what is going to be the best damage conversion set up if it works as theorized with dipping each time?

Use a physical spell then phys to lightning -> Cold -> Fire?

Like Ground Slam for AoE / Heavy Strike for bosses linked with Physical to Lightning Support and Cold to Fire with Call of the Brotherhood thrown in? With maybe some extra conversion of phys thrown in?

Also maybe use Shroud of Lightness as an alternative to Queen of the Forest with all the elemental damage going on for when the Chaos conversion doesn't actually proc?

Yoke of Suffering would also be BIS I am assuming since biscos is nerfed.

as usual youd take the most efficient route, which most likely just includes phys to cold to fire so you get 3x the chaos damage instead of 4x but keep the ring slot. plus call of the brotherhood is only 40% light to cold conversion

thats the reason why GC is many people's choice. it has innate 60% conversion and other 40 comes from the 2 threshold jewels so you have a 'free' conversion already

then you could cold to fire and pyre for 90% conversion

and youd want as much % damage added as, as possible. so hatred, herald of ash, shaper sticks, etc

Alright thanks. I kinda wanted to play something other than GC again since I did GC mines last league. So does everyone think self cast GC is going to be that could compared to maybe Ice Crash, Frost Blades, or Glacial Hammer? I feel like GC self cast is going to have terrible AOE compared to GC mines which was already lacking compared to other choices.