PSA: Mystery box chances - how many do you need to buy?

Since GGG was nice enough to give us the loot box chances, and since I like math, here is some information about how many points you will have to spend on average to get something specific, the most popular thing people want probably being an entire set of something.

So here is the amount of boxes you will have to buy to get something specific. I also list the median values (after buying that many boxes, you have a 50% chance to get what you wanted) and the "unlucky" values (after that many boxes, you get what you wanted with a 90% probability, meaning that there still is a 10% chance you don't).





I also converted this into points you need to spend:




So if you want something specific, be prepared to shell out a lot. If you just want something cool, mystery boxes are great, but they are not a good way to acquire something specific. I guess it is like always: If there are a lot of things you want in the mystery box, go and buy a few. If not, skip. The average value of an item in the mystery box, btw, is 110.4 points.


That being said, I think the new mystery box is pretty damn cool, there is a lot of nice stuff in there. I even kind of almost like the wings, even though I generally hate wings.

I bought 4. First one gave me the fire portal, which is great. Second one gave me the fire cloak, which is meh. Third one gave ice body armour, fourth one gave fire boots. Should have stopped after the first one ;).

And yes, gambling is addictive and I personally hope this is going to be banned, but that is just my personal opinion.

Very nice of you.
Perhaps you could add that in statistics there is no guarantee of any outcome... so it may be very unlucky, but even with a million points spent you might not get what you're looking for.

I saw ice tiger mtx and tought it's super ugly so i want it.
Bought one box and got:



GG

Secret to get what you want is to make sure that you are interested only in ugly things.