Alteration orb probabilities

Hey

I've been thinking about crafting my enchanted hubris to improve it.

However, I don't have infinite ressources and I might try to make a little script to do a simulation and see how much in average costs to craft a 300 or 400+ ES or whatever helmet.

I've found the data in poedb, with the weighting for each mod (easy 2% for all for helmets).

However, one thing I couldn't find is the effect of the alteration orb.
Sometimes it rolls 1 affix, sometimes 2.

Anyone knows the chances to roll 1 or 2 affix?

maybe do some statistics science on http://poedb.tw/us/craft.php

Would also like to know if the prefixes and suffixes are rolled "separately". And other things like how many affixes a rare item gets and how they are rolled.

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Squirrel_of_doom wrote:

Anyone knows the chances to roll 1 or 2 affix?

Is that really important for your use case? Unless you want exact numbers...

If you do want exact numbers it may also be important to know the chance of it rolling a prefix only vs the chance of it rolling a suffix only.

This may not be sufficient for exact results though if prefix and suffix rolling are "entangled".

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adghar wrote:

maybe do some statistics science on http://poedb.tw/us/craft.php

Do you know if the site uses the exact/correct/same_as_PoE rules?

I cant see the point. all you can get is some kind of average number, which is not relevant for single one crafting attempt. what will matter in the end is that how lucky you are with your regal, where you need to hit good ES prefix. the chance is low, and you can hit it in first regal, or not get it in hundreds. Good luck

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Ludvator wrote:

I cant see the point. all you can get is some kind of average number, which is not relevant for single one crafting attempt. what will matter in the end is that how lucky you are with your regal, where you need to hit good ES prefix. the chance is low, and you can hit it in first regal, or not get it in hundreds. Good luck

Or you can just find one if you want to rely on luck:


But if you want to craft then how (for example) do you decide if you go with chaos spam or with alt-regal? What to base this decision on?

I base it on "educated guess"

How would calculating the exact odds make you NOT rely on luck? and btw, good luck calculating the odds of good chaos orb roll

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Ludvator wrote:

How would calculating the exact odds make you NOT rely on luck?

Obviously it doesnt make you not rely on luck.

Knowing the chances to have a single prefix is kinda important :
T2 ES + 2% lightning resist = trash
T2 ES alone = not trash yet, good regal if you want to multicraft, not sure if it's really better but definitely different

I've done some tries on poedb, but i'm not sure it's the same generator as poe and it's awfully slow. Seems 25% prefix, 25% suffix, 50% double, but i have done just 50.
Also it becomes a bit tedious for chaos spam stats.

It's for an enchanted helmet craft, so I can't really easily buy one already done.

If I have 4ex worth of crafting material, I want to know if I should aim for 350 ES or 450 ES + 1 good res or whatever.

Sure in the end it's still luck reliant, but if you go for a goal that is achieved on 95% of the cases for 10000 simulations, I'd totally bet on that.

Just want more than guesses with regards to what to regal, what to aug, what to scour... and I don't have infinite currencies, also it's kinda slow.