General Discussion - Corrupting unique armors - Forum

" _Tiem wrote: " dudiobugtron wrote: If it's 25% , then the chance of getting 3 in a row is 1/64. So a bit less likely than correctly guessing the next card in a deck of cards. That's not how probability works yo. The thing you vaaled (or whatever) doesn't know that thing came before it. It's not like the vaal orb is like "hey, I just gave this dude a rare, I guess this time I better give him a corruption). The 25% chance (which it isn't but hey that's outside the point) is applied on each and every roll. The probability of getting a rare is 25% of the first roll. On the second roll, it's 25%. On the third roll, it's 25%, and so on. Over the course of time, say you rolled 1000 of them, ~250 would be rares. Same applies to everything, from the roll of a dice to a coin toss. The odds of getting tails on a flip is 50%. The odds of getting it again, yup, 50%. You can get 10 tails in a row, doesn't mean anything. Again, over time, say 1000 flips, ~500 would be tails and ~500 would be heads. The human mind has a problem with random and probabilities in general, soo... yay, theory on paper. in reality, although your probabilities might be correct, it doesn't necessarily work; 10,000 uniques are vaal'd by 100 people, each vaaling 100 uniques, one by one in a rotation. one guy gets 60 rares as a result, but this doesn't matter as the others make up for the probability in the grand scheme of things, making the ratio of ripped uniques ~2,5k all in all. [s]only mindless sheep think labyrinth is OK to have in PoE.[/s] okay nevermind labyrinth, fix dx9 blackscreen instead...	Posted by mynameisonlyforthegods#2781 on Jun 16, 2016, 2:32:54 AM Quote this Post
" _Tiem wrote: " dudiobugtron wrote: If it's 25% , then the chance of getting 3 in a row is 1/64. So a bit less likely than correctly guessing the next card in a deck of cards. That's not how probability works yo. Yes it is. I agree the events are independent. (Like you say, they don't influence each other.) If you want to know the probability of independent events all occurring, then you multiply them. That's basic probability theory. P(A and B) = P(A)*P(B). In fact that's literally the definition of what it means for two events to be independent. Perhaps I should have said "If it's 25% , then the chance of all of your next 3 corruptions being rares is 1/64" to be a bit more accurate. Face it, all of your suggestions are worse than this idea: http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/657756	Posted by dudiobugtron#4663 on Jun 16, 2016, 2:57:42 AM Quote this Post
" _Tiem wrote: Same applies to everything, from the roll of a dice to a coin toss. The odds of getting tails on a flip is 50%. The odds of getting it again, yup, 50%. You can get 10 tails in a row, doesn't mean anything. Again, over time, say 1000 flips, ~500 would be tails and ~500 would be heads. On the other hand, if you take five coins and flip them at once, there's a 1/32 probability of them all turning up tails. Same for five tosses of a single coin. Even if each event is independent, it's possible to calculate a compound probability of multiple events turning out a certain way. Put another way: take 3200 groups of five coins (a total of 16000 coins) and toss them. Approximately 100 groups will show all tails. Last edited by databeaver#1892 on Jun 16, 2016, 6:45:28 AM	Posted by databeaver#1892 on Jun 16, 2016, 6:44:23 AM Quote this Post
" dudiobugtron wrote: " _Tiem wrote: " dudiobugtron wrote: If it's 25% , then the chance of getting 3 in a row is 1/64. So a bit less likely than correctly guessing the next card in a deck of cards. That's not how probability works yo. Yes it is. I agree the events are independent. (Like you say, they don't influence each other.) If you want to know the probability of independent events all occurring, then you multiply them. That's basic probability theory. P(A and B) = P(A)*P(B). In fact that's literally the definition of what it means for two events to be independent. Perhaps I should have said "If it's 25% , then the chance of all of your next 3 corruptions being rares is 1/64" to be a bit more accurate. Yep thats it. Spoiler	Posted by gebashOrt#7305 on Jun 16, 2016, 8:17:40 AM Quote this Post
" dudiobugtron wrote: " _Tiem wrote: " dudiobugtron wrote: If it's 25% , then the chance of getting 3 in a row is 1/64. So a bit less likely than correctly guessing the next card in a deck of cards. That's not how probability works yo. Yes it is. I agree the events are independent. (Like you say, they don't influence each other.) If you want to know the probability of independent events all occurring, then you multiply them. That's basic probability theory. P(A and B) = P(A)P(B). In fact that's literally the definition of what it means for two events to be independent. Perhaps I should have said "If it's 25% , then the chance of all of your next 3 corruptions being rares is 1/64" to be a bit more accurate. Sigh. Only for dependent* events man. An orb is not dependent on the orb that preceeded it. It's always 25% in the case of vaal orbs. Sigh... Deliver pain exquisite	Posted by ultratiem#0592 on Jun 16, 2016, 12:05:11 PM Quote this Post
" _Tiem wrote: Sigh. Only for dependent events man. An orb is not dependent on the orb that preceeded it. It's always 25% in the case of vaal orbs. Sigh... The orb is not dependent on the previous orb directly, but indirectly it is. Probablity chance means that the more rolls you do, the closer you will get to the avarange chance, in this case 25% to get rare. So if you fail to get rare in 100 rolls its more likely to get rare than to get non-rare roll for you. Because the probability must sooner or later get close to the avarange 25% chance, otherwise its no 25% chance on avarange at all. But to get close to avarange with great precision you must do alot of rolls (there was some formula for it as I remember). With means that even with 100 rolls you might be far away yet to 25% chance on avarange. To chain 3 rares in row with 25% chance you have 1/64 chance as someone wrote before. Last edited by herflik#4390 on Jun 16, 2016, 4:53:17 PM	Posted by herflik#4390 on Jun 16, 2016, 4:50:11 PM Quote this Post
Don't argue with ignorant people. It's hard enough teaching them basic statistics when you have them in a classroom and they're supposed to be paying attention to you. Do you think you can teach this guy probability in a few posts? You're kidding.. right?	Posted by Shagsbeard#3964 on Jun 16, 2016, 5:32:50 PM Quote this Post
" _Tiem wrote: Sigh. Only for dependent events man. An orb is not dependent on the orb that preceeded it. It's always 25% in the case of vaal orbs. Sigh... The orbs are not dependent on previous results, no. However we are talking about aggregate probability of multiple independent events here. What's the probability of rolling three sixes on three independent dice? Now what's the probability of rolling three sixes on three rolls of a single dice?	Posted by databeaver#1892 on Jun 17, 2016, 2:47:12 AM Quote this Post