Riddle game.

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KyleVoakes wrote:
Here's one:

If you could only pick one of the four answers out of random from a hat, what is the probability that you would randomly select the correct answer?

a) 25%
b) 50%
c) 25%
d) 75%


I googled it too, but haven't found an answer yet.
I do have a question that occurred to me before googleing though: doesn't it depend on what the "correct" answer actually is?
If the correct answer is 25% then the probability is 50%. If the correct answer is either 75% or 50%, then the probability is 1/4.
The question doesn't really make it clear what the correct answer actually is.
If, in fact, the correct answer is EITHER 50% OR 25%, then the probability of selecting it would be 0% due to the fact that there is no such answer in the available options.

Then again, I'm really bad at probability calculations and I suppose that there could be a way to actually assess the probability in this situation.

Edit: Nevermind that last part about either 50% or 25% making the answer 0%, that would apply to all the possible answers. If the answer is 25%, you would have 50% of getting it right, thus resulting in a paradox assuming that that is the intent of the question.
Last edited by majinrevan666#4200 on Jul 15, 2012, 4:36:53 AM
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majinrevan666 wrote:
Edit: Nevermind that last part about either 50% or 25% making the answer 0%, that would apply to all the possible answers. If the answer is 25%, you would have 50% of getting it right, thus resulting in a paradox assuming that that is the intent of the question.

You're right, it is a paradox question. If the answer is 25%, then there's a 50% probability of answering correctly; however, if the answer is 50%, then you have a 25% probability of answering correctly.

So yeah. You got it. Imagine my surprise when this question came up as the very end of an exam. Really catches you off guard. XD
Think of words which end in '-GRY.' Angry and hungry are two of them. There are but three words in the common tongue... what is the third word? The word is something that one uses every day. If thou hast listened carefully, I have already told thee what it is.
Last edited by majinrevan666#4200 on Jul 15, 2012, 1:23:27 PM
I hope it's not "words" ^^.

As it is the third word.
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majinrevan666 wrote:
There are but three words in the common tongue... what is the third word?
The third word in "the common tongue" is "tongue".
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KyleVoakes wrote:
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majinrevan666 wrote:
Edit: Nevermind that last part about either 50% or 25% making the answer 0%, that would apply to all the possible answers. If the answer is 25%, you would have 50% of getting it right, thus resulting in a paradox assuming that that is the intent of the question.

You're right, it is a paradox question. If the answer is 25%, then there's a 50% probability of answering correctly; however, if the answer is 50%, then you have a 25% probability of answering correctly.

So yeah. You got it. Imagine my surprise when this question came up as the very end of an exam. Really catches you off guard. XD


The answer is even more simple if we consider determinism. There is no such thing as probability in a deterministic universe, and there is only a 100% chance if you were destined to get it right, and 0% chance if you were destined to get it wrong.

Since it is an intentional paradox of a question, the result is 0% of getting it right.
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Mark_GGG wrote:
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majinrevan666 wrote:
There are but three words in the common tongue... what is the third word?
The third word in "the common tongue" is "tongue".


Correct. The riddle was from the game "Planscape Torment".

You're up.
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zeto wrote:

The answer is even more simple if we consider determinism. There is no such thing as probability in a deterministic universe, and there is only a 100% chance if you were destined to get it right, and 0% chance if you were destined to get it wrong.

Since it is an intentional paradox of a question, the result is 0% of getting it right.


Even if determinism were true, probabilities would still apply. When we calculate probabilities we do so based on our current knowledge, not the end results. So it's wrong to say that the probability of X doing Y was always a 100% just because we can retroactively see what would have happened.
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majinrevan666 wrote:
You're up.
Okay, let's try this one. It takes a bit of telling (especially since I'll try to be as clear as possible - but feel free to ask for clarification), but the actual puzzle isn't that complicated, and it had me stumped for a little while when I was presented with it the other year. More of a puzzle than a riddle, but close enough and I can't think of any good riddles right now).

There are 57 innocent people who've been captured by a group of sadistic logicians, who are incapable of lying, and are being held prisoner. They are told that the next morning, they will be taken and placed all in a single-file line, such that each person can see all the people in front of him (or her). Then, starting at the back of the line, each will be given a hat. Each hat is either red or green.
If any of them turn around, or attempt to verbally communicate, they'll all be killed on the spot for cheating, so each can only see the hats of those in front of them, and no-one can see their own hat.

One the hapless victims are suitably lined and hatted, the evil logicians will hold a gun to the head of the person at the back of the line (who can see everyone's hats but his own, since they're all in front of him), and ask him to announce the colour of his own hat (which of course, he has not seen). Should he guess incorrectly, he will be shot. Should he guess correctly, he will be set free.
Once he's gone, they'll move forward to the new back of the line, and repeat the process, shooting people who can't guess the colour of their hat, and releasing those who can, until they reach the final person (at the front of the line), and he is either killed or released.

Being supremely confident that their ability to reason far exceeds that of their hapless victims, the sadistic yet immaculately truthful logicians have told all the prisoners the details of this scheme the night before, and the prisoners have the chance over the night to discuss and formulate a plan - but whatever they're doing, they must work out the plan now, and will not be able to communicate when they're lined up - they only thing they'll be able to say is their guess as to the colour of their own hat, on their turn. Obviously if they're really lucky they could all survive by random guessing, but they'd prefer a better plan.

In what manner may the needless waste of human life be minimised? Can you guarantee that no more than a certain number of the innocents are murdered, and if so, how many?
Last edited by Mark_GGG#0000 on Jul 16, 2012, 2:46:01 AM
Perhaps, have the last person currently in line shout out the first person in line's hat color and sacrifice him/herself. Repeat this for the new last person in line, and shout out the second person in line's hat color. As a result, about half of the 57 innocent will survive.

This is as much as I'll rack my brain, don't want to get a headache. I'm not that smart.
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