Jeweler probability and socket color data

I did some research on how jeweler and chromatic orbs work that I wanted to share. All of this comes with the usual caveats of sample size and incomplete info. I’m not saying this is absolutely how it is, this is just a guess based on the data I gathered.

I took a 6 socket ilvl 60 stonebreaker (top tier 2h mace) and jewelered it 425 times. The distribution of the number of sockets was:

1: 121; 2: 116; 3: 119; 4: 59; 5: 9; 6: 1

Percentage-wise, this is ROUGHLY 28/28/28/14/2/tiny

Sample size is too low to guess at the true % for 5 and 6, but I’m pretty confident about the first 4 being within a % or 2.

A very interesting thing that I discovered while doing this was that it absolutely would not leave the item unchanged. I never had it stay a 1 socket item. It stayed 2 or 3 sockets across a roll only if it changed a link.

I kept track of the colors while doing this as well. The breakdown in sockets was:

Red: 900; Green: 47; Blue: 50. It seems likely that the breakdown is 90/5/5, someone with more statistics knowledge than me could say more about the sample size and margin of error.

I did the same thing with an Exile Staff, though with a much smaller sample size. The number of sockets was very similar to the Stonebreaker: 20/20/18/8/3/1. What was interesting was that the colors broke down:

Red: 53: Green: 8; Blue: 106. This looks like Green gets 5%, and the rest is split between Red and Blue at a 1:2 ratio. This surprised me given that the stat requirements are equal str/int.

I’m going to try to gather more jeweler data to get a better number for the 5 & 6 socket chances, which are of course the ones people care about. Send me a PM if you want my Excel spreadsheet with the data, or to tell me to get a life. I did some research on chromes with the Stonebreaker too, but this post is already too long and it really just confirmed the color breakdown from the jewelers.
Thanks for experimenting. Just to note that weapon type and requirement affect the likelihood of a color appearing. For eg, wand are more likely to get blue socket no matter how much you roll. Strength armor rarely get or might be impossible to get > half sockets in blue or green
Unviable build tester.
Fuse mechanics:
http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/21503
95% Crit Build Without Charges [0.10.1c]:
http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/172438
Interesting information. Thanks for sharing.

I was grouped with a friend last night and we used about 6 cromatics on a couple of different wands, and only got a blue socket once. I guess he hit the the outlying areas with some crazy unlucky rolls.
Interesting, thanks. I've never rolled anything past four slots. I wonder if fusing break down the same statistically.
FFA loot sucks.
Last edited by Die_Scream on Feb 23, 2012, 5:57:00 PM
"
Progammer wrote:
Thanks for experimenting. Just to note that weapon type and requirement affect the likelihood of a color appearing. For eg, wand are more likely to get blue socket no matter how much you roll. Strength armor rarely get or might be impossible to get > half sockets in blue or green


I'm fairly certain I rolled 3 green 2 blue on a pure str 5 link with chromatics. I remember being a bit pissed that I didn't get a single red :(
Thanks Dentata! Great info.
"
Sairony wrote:
"
Progammer wrote:
Thanks for experimenting. Just to note that weapon type and requirement affect the likelihood of a color appearing. For eg, wand are more likely to get blue socket no matter how much you roll. Strength armor rarely get or might be impossible to get > half sockets in blue or green


I'm fairly certain I rolled 3 green 2 blue on a pure str 5 link with chromatics. I remember being a bit pissed that I didn't get a single red :(


I'll just leave this here:
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NewDude: I killed Brutus. Now I have no quest. So what now?
Guy: I guess there are people that NEED quests for direction.
Guy2: I always wonder how those people get through life.
GuyMontag: They get married. Wives are like quest-givers.
0.9.6f: 1:100 2:90 3:80 4:30 5:5 6:1

This may change of course - I put the version number on it so that people from the future know to ignore it.

You're right that it'll never reroll to the same number it currently has.
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"
Chris wrote:
0.9.6f: 1:100 2:90 3:80 4:30 5:5 6:1

In percentage chances:
1: 32.68%
2: 29.41%
3: 26.14%
4: 9.80%
5: 1.63%
6: 0.33%
Problems? support@grindinggear.com
"
whiteBoy88 wrote:
"
Chris wrote:
0.9.6f: 1:100 2:90 3:80 4:30 5:5 6:1

In percentage chances:
1: 32.68%
2: 29.41%
3: 26.14%
4: 9.80%
5: 1.63%
6: 0.33%


This is so piece of crap. Ive seen better percentages in most hardcore korean grinders lol.
Looks like spreadsheet from MU Online (edition for ppl who lives in basement).

Inform me when these 3 last numbers will be at least x3.
Maybe then it will be mark that crafting in PoE is fixed and enyojable.
Now it reminds me of systems that are commonly used in korean games (rare materials to upgrade, very low chance of upgrade, high chance of getting something worse and sorry but for modern, western gamer its simply unnacceptable).

I dont know when you guys fro mGGG find inspiration when it comes to some of your game elements and design but im sure its wrong, dark and sad place. :/
Last edited by Kabraxis on Feb 24, 2012, 1:26:36 AM

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