vessel of vinktar flask chances

Are chances really equal?

did 56 runs
dropped-
12 conversion flasks
17 spell flasks
9 attack flasks (this one is expensive)
17 penetration flasks



two spell damage and penetration flasks drops like there is no tommorow and the other two almost at halved rate.. is this coincidence?
i mean that attack flask even randomly goes on hiatuses and stops dropping up to 17 runs (like hxh :P)

made calculations and found that to drop 9 or less flasks on 56 runs it is 7.5% chance to happen.
Should make more runs for more accurate data, but now im too depressed on continuous currency losses which should not happen :(

If u have your statistics feel free to share ;)

Well done! Interesting statistics

I wonder if GGG changes their drop rates league to league. I remember when conversion tar were the most expensive due to blade vortex cheese.

If it's equal chance median is 14 of each flask with 56 runs. You're not really that far away given your small sample size. Try more runs if you want to conclude something. On top of that, why would there be a rarity preference of one of these over another? Their usefulness varies from meta to meta, there isn't one that is a no-brainer best subtype.

while 9 from average 14 is not that far it is rather unlikely to happen as well (as mentioned 7.5%, while average is at 50%). This brought suspicious-ness.

I agree that there is not the best flask in entirety of poe life time. But it isn't unrealistic that ggg changes droprates every league or even more often depending on demands, because for example reason: flask "x" is on high demand and this is because of "y" build is meta, so we decide to reduce drop rates of flask "x" so players will not take that flask willingly and therefore will take other non meta "y" build resulting in less whine in "how few builds dominates the game".

Later in this week probably will update statistics.

edit:
that 7.5% is for one specific flask, if we would say if at least one random flask from all 4 drops x times the chance increases which might be more correct to look for.