Here is why you should always use Vorici

I did some maths (if I did something wrong, please correct me)

Taking an average of 1100 fusings, meaning that after using 1100 fusings you would have 50% chances to have a 6L, I had those graphs made :

First graph is % chances (0.1 = 10%, 1 = 100%) of having your 6L per use of fusing, assuming you would have an average success of 50% at 1100 fusings (totaly arbitrary number)

Second graph is the same, except that after 1100 fusing it is reversed so you can have a better view of the problem. You will see that even if you have 50% chance to get a 6L after 1100 fusings, the area after the spike is wider, this explains because you can never garantee a 100% chance having a 6L

Of course, the 1100 chosen is totaly arbitrary, but you can see the problem.



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Last edited by Zybeline2 on Feb 26, 2015, 12:11:06 PM
No one tell him
If it takes on average 1100 fusings to 6l an item, the odds of having 6 linked it after 1100 fusings is ~63%
At 1500 fusings the odds are roughly 75%.
Your graphs are wrong.
There is something called independant events , should i tell you ? Spending 10k fusing on a no link wont higher the chances of you getting a 6L.

Just do a lottery , i would save you about 10ex worth of fusing and still you dont care about the loss.
Not this fucking topic again.
"Imagining GGG as a cranky hormonal pregnant woman suddenly explains a lot." - CliveHowlitzer
yep, always use Vorici... he "bricked" my Alpha's though.
d:-D*
"
If it takes on average 1100 fusings to 6l an item, the odds of having 6 linked it after 1100 fusings is ~63%
At 1500 fusings the odds are roughly 75%.
Your graphs are wrong.


To expand, the probability of rolling at least 1 6-link with 1100 fuse given a 1/1100 probability of rolling a 6-link with a fuse (equivalently an average of 1100 fusings before a 6-link is rolled) is computed as follows:

1 - (1 - 1/1100)^1100 = 0.632...

Anyways, I am not sure what this kind of analysis is supposed to prove. The question here is which method has a higher expected value. If you know some basic facts about the binomial distribution, it is easy to see that the two methods have equal expected value when the probability of rolling a 6-link is exactly 1/1500 (so that Vorici's price "makes sense"), provided you spend exactly 1500 fuse. The general consensus is that the fusing probability is actually higher than 1/1500. In addition, if you manually fuse, you have a chance of rolling a 5-link which can be sold to recover some of the costs.

I cannot fathom a reason to Vorici craft a 6-link.
IGN: Isometry
Lol vorici fuck that.

In all of my chars none have used vorici to ''Link'' then again I get what I want when I want cuz It's how I roll.
Dys an sohm
Rohs an kyn
Sahl djahs afah
Mah morn narr
odds are 1000 sided dice and one side has 6L or .01% per fuse.
Git R Dun!
Ive used alot of fuses on an armor ive been trying to fuse (most likely around 1k) and i still would not pick vor over just randomly trying to 6l an item

I am not 100% sure why i could not it just feels like it would be better use of fuses to try each one by hand ;s

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