0 risk = not 0 risk

I just lost 25% of my shipment at 0 risk. But this means that 2 entire shipments were actually wasted because now they didn't meet either of the quoatas and I need to send another nearly empty ship to finish. So 2 entire shipments were wasted because the game said there was 0 risk but it was not true. Losing the entire shipment would actually be less punishing as only one shipment would be wasted then.

Yeah, I was noticing some weird behaviour over the last couple of days that I didn't see before. All week was running 0% risk shipment with no issues. Suddenly they have issues like had to eat all the supplies (including the metal apparently) and crew members dying which then increases the risk of the shipment to like 30% with it still ongoing. So not only can you have one issue, but you can have multiple failures on a 0% risk shipment.

Not really sure what happened mid-week. Had issues with bismoth auto smelting with nobody assigned to smelting (for anything) preventing town upgrades. I'm currently running experiments with high risk shipments. So far not a single one of my high risk shipments (60% - 70%) has resulted in the loss of crew. Only the 0% shipment had a fatality. I'm gonna keep testing to see what happens.

EDIT: Did another 3 runs at 0% (even reduced the value further to ensure there was no un-displayed rounding error) and 3 runs at 62%, 58%, 42%.

Out 3 shipments that had 0% I lost another crew member (critical failure).

The other 3 went:
62% - No failure
58% - Delayed
42% - ate all the cargo (pumpkins, dust, and orichalcum ingots)

Turns out 0% has the worst failure rate/critical failure rate thus far.

Yep this "Risk" meter is a LIE and it pissses me off.
EVERY SINGLE TIME I send a big shipment it gets hit with losing half bullshit

Fun Fact: done an uncountable number of shipments and have come to a weird conclusion (for my small sample of the player base). I have only ever lost crew mates when running 0% risk shipments and have had my ships commandeered twice also at only at 0%.

This mechanic is not working properly at least according to the description. It would seem that even though it says it doesn't affect the chance to lose crew mates or be commandeered I have never had a high risk shipment be commandeered or lose a crew mate.

It really feels like the game is always looking for a failure state and if you run 0% then the only failure states are commandeered or crew death. Whereas with the other shipments the failure states are minor in comparison (lose cargo, delayed, etc.), but because a lesser failure state gets set then the others are ignored. Very strange.

It says it doesn't affect it, but since the only outcomes of a 0% shipping run is success, crew dies, and commandeered and it needs to have a failure state "x" amount of the time then the risk factor absolutely does affect the chance of losing a crew mate or being commandeered. They may have not understood the math behind this.

You are better to run low risk vs 0% risk runs since the failures states become diluted thus a lower chance to be commandeered or have crew die.