Regular Elder Watcher's Eye Drop Rate

I have been farming Elder and up until Sunday I was getting about a 25% drop rate on these Watcher's Eye. I started again Monday and haven't had the item drop for more than 12 runs. Has something changed?
Don't want to invest in any more fragments if I can't get the goods.

I know there are other threads regarding this however, they are outdated and I need recent information.

No, it hasn't changed all of a sudden like that.
It's just rng. Sometimes you get lucky and get 4 in a row and other times you don't get one in 12+ runs.

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imanubcake wrote:

No, it hasn't changed all of a sudden like that.
It's just rng. Sometimes you get lucky and get 4 in a row and other times you don't get one in 12+ runs.

Exactly this. Nothing has changed. I've been killing regular elder all league long and I've seen him drop two eyes in all this time. It's just a low'ish chance to drop and if you got a bunch, you were just on a lucky streak. Of course the two I got were virtually unsellable but if you get an eye to drop from normal elder than it's a good run. Pretty much everything else he drops is bargain basement cheap. Same with normal shaper aside from Dying Sun really. Not counting the uber fragments obviously.

RNG is a fickle thing. It's either on your side or it isn't. Nothing more. Also I've heard that sometimes the Watcher's Eye drop can be delayed and I've seen clips of the eye dropping like 20 seconds after all the other loot dropped. Whether it's just server lag, player connection issues or a genuine bug I can't say, just that it may be prudent to hang around for a little bit before leaving the arena.

Of course I don't have EVIDENCE to suggest that nothing has changed, but you don't have evidence that something has changed. This happens all the time, people go on a bad run of luck and then you have numerous threads asking if exalted orb drop rates were nerfed this league. The answer is almost always RNG. Unless I see patch notes or an official comment from GGG stating a change in drop rates, I'm always going to default to BAD RNG.

Where did you source your information about it not changing? Is there something I can reference?

You won't find anything official if that's what you think. It's just rng.

From my experience it's around 1:6. Sometimes you'll have droughts and sometimes you'll have floods.

Last league I got 2 watcher's eye in first 4 runs, then for the rest of the league (10-15 runs), none.

This league I got 3 jewels in ~10 runs. It's hard to tell the drop rate when running elder in bulks of 3-5 runs at a time.

if nothing has changed, why would you think there would be information specifically stating nothing has changed? lol

anyway, the rate is 100% for me. i ran 1 elder and got 1 jewel. hurrah

It's always been about 1/4 for me, same as uber.

RNG can swing very wide on boss drops. I lost like 50ex+ running Cortexes one league when I should've made like 50ex profit (if Bottled Faith is 1/5 like it's supposed drop chance.)

It definitely seems eyeballs are weighted rarer than some of the other dogshit in red elder.

They're also harder to move because ppl view them as "scuffed" even when you get god tier synergy rolls because they point out "if that was 3 affix you could have had a triple hatred" or some logic of that nature.