Sacrifice Fragments Drop Rate

Introduction

Hi everyone! Recently, I started a Prophecy character. I'm absolutely aware that starting so late isn't extremely worth it but I still wanted to benefit a little bit from the currency differences. I realized that the sacrifice fragments such as Dusk and Dawn are surprisingly cheap here. Ranging from 1c for 1.5-3 pieces. So I decided to buy few of them, I was feeling lucky and wanted to try some Midnight drops for the transfer. I however felt like something was off and I wanted to track it. As it was a new character, it was taking way too long (approximately 2 minutes per run, excluding loading times etc.), so I swapped to standard and grinded it here (about 20-30 seconds per run) and I'm gathering the data in Google Sheets.

Current information

Unofficial wiki lists that the chances of dropping specific fragments are 4:3:2:1, that seems kinda logical and apparently works. However, I've always felt risk from the other information given, which is that you have 50% chance to end up with a Vaal skill gem. I always thought this is a valid information and didn't bother "trying my luck" to drop a midnight. After grinding it for about 2 hours on Prophecy, I decided to make statistics, because I only very rarely dropped the Vall skill gem and therefore gained about 3ex worth items within that time (incl. regular drops and one exalted orb drop, not only pure midnight fragments) and also because I knew that doing that much faster with my standard character could earn much more.

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Once midnights start dropping, the rate doesn't change based on level. They don't drop in really low level areas.

This was stated by chris_wilson on Reddit 2 years ago, but there's a chance that some things were changed.

My statistics

So far, I've done 100 runs for the statistics, so nothing is accurate yet. I plan to reach 1000 for the sake of accuracy though.

Here's a link to the Google Sheets.

Investment is a sacrifice fragment used in map device, result is the drop I got from the Vaal Vessel. For those interested in the profit, difference between overall and real is that overall considers every drop to be sold and every investment to be bought. Real profit only considers selling the midnights and buying a 1c fragment after losing the previous one by dropping a Vall skill gem. If these statistics work, I would earn much more than just few chaos, but I'm not using that yet for the sake of gaining more data.

What does this data mean to us?

Vaal Vessels seem to drop items according to what area it is, for instance Dusk areas seem to drop an overwhelming amount of Vaal skill gems, nearing 50%. Fragment kinda look like dropping 4:3:2:1, but it seems like they have a little bit higher chance to drop self. Can't confirm the latter thought because this amount of runs might mean I've been just lucky. But the rate of gems dropping doesn't seem to always be 50% at all, just thinking it was lower made me do these statistics and according to them, it doesn't seem I was wrong and it looks like farming midnight fragments is not that risky as we always thought.

If this works, does that mean I should just farm the fragments?

If you play the standard league, it's probably not gonna profit so much. If you're playing a new season, fragments other than midnight get extremely cheap (in first few days you can even get some for few alts), in that case it might get very worthy.

Why did you grind dusks rather than selling them? You would loose 2 midnights, but could sell dusks for 24c.

Even though I see dusks don't profit, I want to be sure that I have enough data for dusks and so that the difference is visible.

Conclusion

Once I finish all the 1000 runs, I'll try to make some general conclusion. 1000 runs aren't possible to be inaccurate, 100 might be little bit lucky/unlucky. I would anyway like to see your input, thoughts, questions, eventually a confirmation whether ALL the Vaal Vessels have the 50% chance and I'm just being lucky or a confirmation that wiki is inaccurate and the other information we had is outdated. Thanks for your input!