Comprehensive Midnight Farming Drop Rates -- And $$$PROFIT$$$

When I'm in a crunch for currency, I farm sacrifice pieces for Midnights. A lot. Typically, I make about an exalt per hour, which is a pretty good rate (not including extra drops in the zones, like an Astramentis I found during yesterday's farming). I do not include chaos recipes, either. That said, I've been curious as to the exact drop rates of Midnights, and so began a text file and spreadsheet to track all of my drops in almost 150 runs.

Surprisingly, Midnights dropped over 12% of the time, a rate higher than I thought. In total, I got a midnight for every 2.278 fragments run, and at a selling price of 9c, that equates to roughly 3 chaos profit per piece run. But, there were some other surprises, and indications that I definitely need to run more pieces to increase my sample size.

Later on, I also ran over my Midnights and checked their item levels. Since they drop from a chest, they are always the ilvl of the area they are dropped in. So, 68=Dusk, 69=Dawn, and 70=Noon. This is where I found a major surprise. Despite having run far fewer Noons in total, they dropped a very high number of Midnights. I haven't run any Z-tests or anything yet, as I would like a larger sample size, but the proportion is actually truly astronomical.

All in all, I did 143 runs and got 18 Midnights. I did not get Vaal Haste or Discipline during these runs (the most expensive Vaal skills) but did get a Discipline earlier in the day. Full details are in the spreadsheet link below.


Any other things I should be looking out for? Variables to add to the sheet? Will be running more pieces soon, will try to get my sample size up to 500-600 runs eventually. PM me in game at Wheeshnaw if you would like to sell me sacrifice pieces (1c each, 60:1 ex) or buy my Midnights (9c each, 8:1 ex)

drop rate used to be lower... About 5% so you maybe were thinking of those times.

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Aim_Deep wrote:

drop rate used to be lower... About 5% so you maybe were thinking of those times.

That's what I was testing against, seemed a bit low. In any case, I can't reject that null quite yet but with more runs I probably will. That said, I am however surprised that the rate is above 10%. Perhaps with more runs it will stabilize lower. Also surprised at how few Noons dropped.

Also, if someone would like to post/link this on Reddit that would be nice. Don't have an account there, and don't intend to.

so where do you go to get a vaal area at least pretty sure ? Are there still those hints with longr loading times and so on?

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demogorg wrote:

so where do you go to get a vaal area at least pretty sure ? Are there still those hints with longr loading times and so on?

Dunno any tricks, but the simplest run is The Wetlands: waypoint is always at the edge and you just do a full circle searching for vaal's entrance spawn, that's pretty fast (not to mention that there's often a stone circles too). Heard that "popular" locations like The Ledge and The Docks got the chances lowered for quite long time back.

Don't know if you want to add other people's data into yours, but I just ran 39 noons and here are the results. Either you had very good luck or I had very bad luck. Or both.

39 sac noons:

20 dusk
6 dawn
3 noon
1 midnight
9 vaal gems (1x each vaal glacial hammer, rain of arrows, flameblast, spark, lightning trap, cold snap, summon skeletons, storm call, righteous fire)

I did have 2 exalted orbs drop off random monsters in these runs so that made me feel better about the otherwise crappy returns. I will be running the other fragments I got and keeping track of those results as well if you are interested.

edit: updated to show data from running the 3 noons I got from the first batch.

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demogorg wrote:

so where do you go to get a vaal area at least pretty sure ? Are there still those hints with longr loading times and so on?

I buy the pieces for 1c each, you can run random pieces in the map device to open up corrupted areas. The fastest way to farm pieces otherwise is through the Docks exploit, but I am pretty sure that those drops are of a different rate.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BZYiTBoOFDuQFObB5QMEgoNSMhEKlVq-1OJLaCBuNYw/pubhtml

Spread sheet of results for 99 fragment runs, including the noon runs in my previous post.

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krakerman wrote:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BZYiTBoOFDuQFObB5QMEgoNSMhEKlVq-1OJLaCBuNYw/pubhtml

Spread sheet of results for 99 fragment runs, including the noon runs in my previous post.

Could you perhaps do something to organize that? Would love to see ratios.