Beachhead maps not rolling - bad luck or ?

Hey,

Anyone else unable to roll beachhead maps? I used to get a beachhead for every 1-4 harbinger orbs. I have used around 20 and gotten diddly squat (I mean, they go up a level, but no beachheads). Just horrible luck? Did they make it harder? Just curious if anything changed since a couple of patches ago, maybe other players have noticed the same thing, or if it is just RNG-you-know-who not loving me no more. I was hoping to complete some unique pieces before the league ends, but I can't complete them if I can't roll maps. (I only play SSF, so I can't buy a lot of harb orbs just to test beyond what I find, so I know my sample size is small.) Thanks for reading.

Any random sequence will have streaks of good and bad "luck" in it. You're probably also suffering from a bit of rose tinted hindsight. Best way to counter this is to keep an objective record of your results and apply a little bit of statistics to it.

Second best way is to complain on a forum.

3/10 should be reasonable or more with 20%

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Babymakerkiller69 wrote:

3/10 should be reasonable or more with 20%

So would 0/10 or 8/10. "Reason" has little to do with it.

If the actual chance was 20%, the most frequent result would be 2/10. That's kind of what 20% means.

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Shagsbeard wrote:

If the actual chance was 20%, the most frequent result would be 2/10. That's kind of what 20% means.

I'm really torn on whether I should start a pedantic argument over this inaccuracy. I know what you wanted to say (and figure that you do, too), but there's quite enough incorrect interpretations of random behaviour floating around as it is :/

Just don't go there. Really. I have more years teaching this stuff than you have on the planet.

I'm definitely not going to try to teach you what you should learn here on a forum when 10+ years of public education has failed to do in person.

idk, just my bet of total of 500 that I've traded.

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Shagsbeard wrote:

I'm definitely not going to try to teach you what you should learn here on a forum when 10+ years of public education has failed to do in person.

I was referring to the fact that the most frequent outcome (i.e. the mode) of a (repeated) random experiment does not necessarily correspond to its mean, the latter being typically "what 20% [of n trials] means".

No need to get ugly, Old Man.

Anyway. Carry on.

Friends of mine have also "suffered" to not able to roll Beachhead maps with harb orbs.
I could assume that this mechanic is silently nerfed so we cant roll those maps so easily anymore.
I used to have 4 maps on 15 and best ive got is 2 map on 3.
Did 15 some time ago and no single one, another mate on diff guild did 20 and no single one so...

not a single one, how many did you stuck those orbs? :D