860 jewellers spent - still no luck :( Please tell me how many it normally takes !

Some math behind probability...

I remember to read somewhere that the probability to get a 6S is about 1/300 (neglecting the constraint tha a jew change the socket configuration, and also the effects of scraps/stones). Suppose that this number is about 1/250 if we consider that. 250 is (quite) a big number. The probability to NOT get a 6S is (1-1/250).

The probability to NOT get a 6S after n jew is

(1-1/250)^n = ( (1-1/250)^250 )^(n/250)

Since 250 is (quite) big, the first parenthesis is about 1/e=0.368...

Replacing n with 860 you get

(1/e)^(860/250)=0.032 = 1/31

So yes, you have been unlucky.

WOOOO finally got it at 887 jewellers


Lets start the fuses

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Kazmio wrote:

WOOOO finally got it at 887 jewellers

Lets start the fuses

I would like to ask you some questions:
If I read correctly you need 5L only?
Why then have you persisted on getting 6S item? (It is waste if currency and time IMHO)
The chances to 5L 5S item are away better than to 5L 6S item.
Also i suppose you will need to change the colours of the sockets - it is the same here 6S equals to more random possibilities...

p.p. do not want to be offensive here, but just to share my humble (sorrow) experience with the crafting

p.p.p. please, have in mind, that I am not native speaker so my explanation may be not very good

"

BlueArrow wrote:

The chances to 5L 5S item are away better than to 5L 6S item.

this is not true.

the main reason people go for 6S first is because:

1) jewelers cost only 1/4 of a fusing

2) a 5L can occur within a 6S in multiple different ways, thus GREATLY enhancing your chances of getting a 5L, saving you precious fusings

3) it is quite possible to hit a 6L before you hit a 5L

it is very hard to 5S 5L an item because you are forcing a situation where the outcome can only occur in one configuration. NOBODY does this. at least, no sane people.

"

Veruski wrote:

"

BlueArrow wrote:

The chances to 5L 5S item are away better than to 5L 6S item.

this is not true.

the main reason people go for 6S first is because:

1) jewelers cost only 1/4 of a fusing

2) a 5L can occur within a 6S in multiple different ways, thus GREATLY enhancing your chances of getting a 5L, saving you precious fusings

3) it is quite possible to hit a 6L before you hit a 5L

it is very hard to 5S 5L an item because you are forcing a situation where the outcome can only occur in one configuration. NOBODY does this. at least, no sane people.

pretty much this :)

My brother 5l a 5s wings of entropy in two fusings a while back. He blew a bunch of jeweler orbs and gave up at 5s and was just hoping to hit 4l but got lucky. I thought there was 2x combos for 5l with 6s vs. 1x for 5s? On another note, I hit 5s in 9 tries and 4l in 6 tries, is this lucky?

took me around 600 on my armor same one lighting coil XD

maybe your luck ran out cus u got so meny from 30-60 jews


used around 400 fusings gotten 5l 2 times

im saving up 500 fus be for i retry for 6l

path of complete waste of time