Orb of Chance Community Log

This log is no longer valid as of Patch 0.10.7.

From the 0.10.7 Patch Notes:
-Increased the drop rate of Unique items.
-An Orb of Chance is now much more likely to create common Unique items and less likely to generate uncommon or rare Unique items.

Asked Mark about this through PM, here is the response I received:

All I know is the current unique system was implemented ages ago, and the orb of chance was upgraded to actually produce the correct chances of getting certain uniques - because it was still using old code for so long, it was far, far more easy to get some uniques by chancing than drops. I do not no the exact way the chance of getting a particular unique from orb of chance is implemented, only that the result is it has the equivalent chance of getting a particular unique as of dropping that unique, rather than orbs of chance being much more likely to get the less common uniques.

In other words, the chance is no longer evenly distributed, meaning a log such as this one is now useless. As such I'll no longer be updating this. Thanks for all the contributions while it was around. It was a fun project at the very least! :)


Orb of Chance odds last known modification: Patch 0.9.10f
Log reset to compensate.


Please do not come here just to post that you got a Unique from an Orb of Chance.

In order for the data to be accurate, you must regularly post your all of your statistics, not just the uniques you find. The reason for this is if the only data people posted was of uniques, the data would be biased towards uniques making the odds seem higher than they really are - it's important to keep that from happening.


Complete logged data:

5638 - Magic
1398 - Rare
0029 - Unique
7065 - Total

Post your own statistics, and I'll add them to the log. Be sure to include what kind of item(s) it was so that I can confirm it has a unique form - this is important! If this isn't done, your data can't be counted.

Keep in mind that the Unique rates will probably never be entirely accurate; It will take thousands of orbs before I'd feel confident saying the statistics are even "close." Just as an example, at the time of writing this, there are currently almost 200 Rares logged, and the value is still off by over 5%. Take the unique probabilities as you read them with a grain of salt, as they are likely pretty far off - knowing the probabilities doesn't make them any less arbitrary.

Related Developer Quotes:

From Page 5:

Chris wrote:
Although I'm not going to comment on the unique rates, from memory the chance of converting to a rare should be something like 1 in 5.4.

From Page 7:

Chris wrote:
Character rarity bonuses don't affect Orb of Chance rolls - they can be done on any character.

Via PM:

Chris wrote:
There are indeed different rarities for different uniques, but it only matters with the Orb of Chance if there are multiple uniques for that base type. If there's only the one, then chance has the same fixed value of rolling it. This means it's best to use chances on base types that can generate a good unique or a valuable rare.

Last edited by MonopolyLegend on May 26, 2013, 8:05:49 PM
As high as a 1 in 4 of a rare?!?

That's higher than I expected, though I suppose it makes perfect sense given that 4xchance=1xscouring~=1xalchemy.

It also means that selling chance for scouring is inefficient.

4 chance = 1 alchemy + 4 transmutation + X
(Where X is a fraction of a 'make unique' orb)

As economies tend toward efficiency, this has several consequences:

1) Reduced supply of scouring will increase the value of scouring
2) Reduced supply of scouring will decrease demand for alchemy.
3) Decreased demand for alchemy will decrease the value of alchemy.
Make Elite IV:Dangerous happen!
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Hey there, Jawa. I've seen you around in Merciless...working my new archer up there now. :) Keep in mind that this isn't entirely accurate yet, since it is from such a small sample size.
Last edited by MonopolyLegend on Jun 21, 2012, 6:17:36 AM
Looks to me as though someone is rooting for the mesh unique boots!!!
IGN: Annassassin
auLansalot wrote:
Looks to me as though someone is rooting for the mesh unique boots!!!

I figured if I'm going to be using all these orbs, I may as well try for something cool. If/when I get the boots, I'll move on to a different base item. The overall goal is to keep an enormous log of these things and hopefully determine approximate probabilities. Getting fun toys along the way is an added bonus! :)
Last edited by MonopolyLegend on Jun 21, 2012, 7:48:37 AM
1 rare, 4 magic so far.
1 rare, 4 magic so far.

Got it, thanks
It's probably too late now, but this would also be a good time to grab some probabilities for the different fixes.
TehHammer is not a crime!
TheRabbit303 wrote:
It's probably too late now, but this would also be a good time to grab some probabilities for the different fixes.

1 rare, 3 magic.
I always thought the future depended on the choices you made.

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