Chromatic Orb probabilities Spreadsheet (Update: N = 1570)

where are the instructions to submit data points?

Currently adding my data as I chrome. Expect to add about 200 points. I want to report that I had multiple chrom rolls that resulted in the exact same combination with just the color positions changed

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2) If the colors on the freshly rolled item match exactly the colors on the item previously, the entire rolling process is repeated, such that rolling a chromatic will never result in the exact same configuration of socket colors (although the total number of each color may remain the same)

^I pored over the existing data points provided by the previous contributors and the data pretty much debunks this (line 285/286, 302/303, and many more including some of my own on sheet 2)

Added 149 points to a new sheet. I got cold feet as I was going to run out of chromes and end up with a chest I couldn't use. Yesterday I spent 180 chromes on the same piece so cumulatively that is 330 consecutive rolls without hitting 3 off colors (my piece is a 5L G/B hybrid). I wonder if my sample is an outlier.

During these 149 rolls that I did record, I'm 80% sure on two occasions I used a chrome and it did totally nothing to the colors or positions--exact outcome as if I never used an orb on it.

Thanks for the data! Generally, I've just been having people add the data onto the end (which I went ahead and did for your data). Once 1.1 hits, I'll take all the previously collected data and make a new spreadsheet for people to add data to, just in case the probabilities are changed and also to make it slightly easier to add data.

In terms of having repeats in the data, that absolutely happens. Sometimes a 2R2G item will roll 2R2G again, but as far as I've ever seen it always creates those colors in a different configuration. I'm not sure if the devs have ever specifically confirmed that chromatics never end up with the exact same socket colors, but it would be surprising if they allowed it. During closed beta, for instance, Chris confirmed that Jeweler Orbs are coded to never roll the item with the same number of sockets. (see http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/20338#p317215)

That said, who knows. It's totally possible it did happen, in which case you'd probably want to make a bug report.

I'd say your 330 roll streak without hitting a 3 off color is pretty unlucky (unless you also really needed a specific combination of blue and green sockets in addition). But such is the fickle nature of RNGesus

Hi all! I'm bumping this for a little visibility during the new league. I haven't been updating the data quite as often. It's academic conference submission season and my actual work has me very busy. As such, I haven't had the chance to contribute much of my own data, but data collection continues anyway!

I've moved the pre-1.1 data to a separate, locked sheet. You can submit post-1.1 data on the new sheet. So far we've got about 1500 data points total, which is great! I ran the numbers for all the pre-1.1 data, but haven't posted them. Essentially, nothing has really changed. I still feel very confident about the model's ability to explain the chromatic data. But in order to get a really good estimate of the actual parameter, we need lots more data points. Especially if you have a really hard set of colors to roll, we need uninterrupted, long uses of chromatics on a single item. That way the data is less biased towards finding the kinds of rolls you were looking for, which in the past has biased the parameter somewhat higher than it probably should be.

Thanks again everyone for the time and data that's been contributed so far!

Bumping because I've added a (currently still in testing, but I think it works) spreadsheet to calculate (with the best data available) what the likelihood of any set of colors is given your current item configuration.

I've updated the original post with the link, but you can also find it here:

im trying to colour a 6L quill rain RRRBBG and the calculator tells me i need around 50.

the item requires 26 dex to wield however im on about 500 and i havent gotten it.

Idea: Have people check all the vendors. This requires the assumption that the initial roll is equal to a Chromatics modulo Chromatics always changing the color set. But it gives a wide spread of level requirements and doesn't require people to actually spend Chromatics.

Naturally it is essential that people only do this on "fresh" vendors and not after they've been farmed for Chromatic recipes as this will skew the data.