Beta keys=0.001% drop rate

I feel like I'm grinding away for a rare item that's just never going to drop. Lol
Off to spend 10 bucks I guess

This is why diablo is going to succeed with the RMAH. People just can't wait

explain your math.

1 beta key every 5 minutes. 100 registers per day that also has a chance math is easy.

1\X + Y% - 5* 100 +Z \ W%= 0.001%

how do you know about 100 register/day

He's just joking around or trolling. The timer gives away almost 300 invites a day anyways.

So if we take the current rate of 100 new users a day and include the factor of people pre-paying for keys.

5 * 24 - X / Z² + principle \ W%= 352%

Amount of people still waiting for key = y
Amount of People that register each day =x
1 key every 5 minutes = 288 keys per day
Every time someone registers decreases your chance
The odds seem a little Vegas to me, that's all I'm saying.
It's better to support the Dev anyway. If they were charging full retail for the game, then it wouldn't be worth it to pay beta for beta key.

my eyes are bleeding because of this mathexplanation :D

i think it would be more like:

288 keys per day
x is for the number of registred non beta members
y for the new members of the day

so the formula would be more like:


(1/(x+y))*288

if there are more than 288 new people registred at that day than you have a lower chance the next day

(it would be more exact if you have a correct number of non-beta-members just before every random pick)

if you say, that since half a year there are per day only 100 new members than you would have your key in a day so there need to be more... lets say 500 per day

366/2 = 183
183*500 = 91500
1/91500 * 288 = 0,0031475409836066

BUT :D
that would be if there were no keys given away for free
lets say half of them has actually a key so it would be more like:

1/~45000 *288 = 0,0064

soo, do i get a key now or not?!?

haha x) this brainstorm around the math.

@ DarthPI No u'll NOT !!!

btw luck still luck

You forgot about friend keys or other places/websites doing mass give aways.