7h twitch live 0 drops...

I don't really get how they came up with the 5.5 hours to win. It seems like they just took 1 / 0,015 = 66.66 => 66.6 rolls to win. With roll every 5 minutes = 66.6*5 = 333 min / 60 = 5.5 hours.

BUT, this is not how the probability math works.

Your chance of loosing is 1 - 0.015 = 0.985. To calculate your chance to not-win after 5.5 hours of watching, you will do 0.985^66.6 = 0.365. To calculate your chance to win you will just do 1-chance to lose => After 5.5 hours, there should be 63.5% chance that you have won (one or more times) and 36.5% chance that you haven't.

So there is still a fairly big chance of getting nothing even after 5.5 hours.

But...When people are saying that entire guilds got nothing... that seems.. really sketchy. Lets use the same math (although here I am not 100% sure that I am right.. statistics is sometimes very counter-intuitive). With 10 people watching 5.5 hours, each with 36.5% chance to not get anything. its 0.365^10 = 0.000042 => There should be 99.9958% probability that at least one of them won.

+1

no loot after all :/

Watched the entire stream and did enjoy it but didnt receive a single MTX drop -_-

+1 Enjoyed the stream, wished the lore panel was hosted, but I also watched the entirity and got 0 drops.

+1
Nothing here =/

+1

"

felwen wrote:

+1
if we make the math , 1.5% every 5min the live during 7hours so we logical got 126% for drop , and nothing????

maths:
1.5% for 5 min
4.5% for 15min
18% for 1 hour
126% for 7hours

and i precise my count is valid with my twich count

lol. please don't do 'maths'

+1

streamed from start to end and no loot. GGG should just give away some MTX to ALL the viewers at this point considering their TWITCH attention grab scheme failed horribly

+1

"

felwen wrote:

+1
if we make the math , 1.5% every 5min the live during 7hours so we logical got 126% for drop , and nothing????

maths:
1.5% for 5 min
4.5% for 15min
18% for 1 hour
126% for 7hours

and i precise my count is valid with my twich count

^
literally has no idea how probability works

typical boomer

also guy in my guild got two drops in three hours. just like reddit, the ones who whine and scream the loudest are the ones who find something unfair. WAHH NO TWITCH DROPS WAHH NO 6L IN THREE DAYS OF LEAGUE START WAHH SYNTHESIS CRAFTING ONLY FOR THE 1% WAHH

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