Uber Trials

Still nothing. Got three more duds. I once had a class of 35 elementary school teachers roll dice until a six was rolled, counting the number of tries it took. Highest was 32 tries. Lowest was 1. That's way too much variance for the process to be considered "fair", even though people had an equal chance of being on the good end or the bad. I don't mind it too much that there's SOME variance. But this is getting stupid.

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Shagsbeard wrote:

Still nothing. Got three more duds. I once had a class of 35 elementary school teachers roll dice until a six was rolled, counting the number of tries it took. Highest was 32 tries. Lowest was 1. That's way too much variance for the process to be considered "fair", even though people had an equal chance of being on the good end or the bad. I don't mind it too much that there's SOME variance. But this is getting stupid.

Using statistics, the chance of not getting the 1 in 6 over 32 iterations is:

Edit: Whoops, got my math wrong.

The chance of not getting the 1/6 is 5/6ths. That is each time and these are independent events, so we simply multiply that chance by itself a number of times equal to the number of runs we do.

Let's say we go 32 runs. That's (5/6)^32=0.0029 or so. Multiply by 100 to get the percent which is 0.29% chance of not getting the given 1 of 6, meaning it'd be a 1-.29% = 99.71% ish chance of getting at least one during that time. In other words it ought to be guaranteed at that point for most people's purposes.

Hell, just getting to a 90% chance of having found at least one trial means 1-(5/6)^X=.9, so solve for X by plugging it into wolframalpha to get X = 12.6293, or rounded up we find we're past 90% chance to get the trial only after 13 more runs.


99%? That ends up being about 25.25 runs.

If every map had a trial entrance then this wouldn't feel so bad, but since maps might only have a 1 in 10 chance of spawning a trial then we might multiply these numbers by 10 to get a very rough estimate on the number of maps one needs to run to get the last trial. So to surpass a 90% chance we'd need to run over 120 maps. Surpassing 99% means running over 250 maps. And these are maps past the point of already having 5 of the 6 trials done.

Easily taking hundreds of maps to get the trials can and does cause frustrations. Since it's just a chance of a trial appearing in a map, it could literally take thousands of maps because it's one layer of RNG on top of another layer.

SSF is a heavy burden

Those mirrors can take up a lot of valuable stash tab space. If you bop your character over to standard, I'd take it off your hands to free up some space for additional ID scrolls. I won't even charge you too much to do it.



Wolf

You'd have to at least match the vendor's offer, and also teach someone how to party/trade.


Maybe I'm doing something wrong here... is there a better chance to get a trial in a lower tier map? Should I just run T1 maps at lightning speed just to try to generate trials?

Meh
3? 4? seasons ago I filled my bulk tab with goddesses and never found Trial of Burning Sensation. Eventually I gave in and 820'd it.

If i was in a SSF situation the i would probably do the same thing i used to do before i just spent 10 mins in /Global 820... Spam Prophecy's.

I probably average at least one-two Trial Prophecy's per day.. Which once ive got all my Trials i sell off to others looking for trials.

Now if they simply made Trials you have not completed yet more likely to spawn over ones you have found i think would be more than enough combined with the Prophecy to make trials MUCH easier to SSF.

This is coming from someone who the first couple leagues post Ascendancy who went out of their way to self find all my own trials... And upon doing so the best i ever did SSF on my own i ended up with 24 keys by the time i hit my 6th... The second best from there was 38 keys and STILL needed one trial... STILL ended up /global 820 that last unforgiving trial EVEN WITH PROPHECY... So yeah i have to agree here trials have ALWAYS been super difficult to get all 6 on your own completely. The Prophecy is super common but the biggest problem with the prophecy is the same issue the trials have period.. Even if you find Dozens the chances its 6 DIFFERENT trials you need is the issue.

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Shagsbeard wrote:

You'd have to at least match the vendor's offer, and also teach someone how to party/trade.


Maybe I'm doing something wrong here... is there a better chance to get a trial in a lower tier map? Should I just run T1 maps at lightning speed just to try to generate trials?

Take T1 map (beach is the best, but graveyard is also acceptable). Transmute it with orb of transmutation, result doesn’t matter, unless it’s some reflect thing or temporal chains (or anything else you don't like), then roll it. Obtain 2 quicksilver flasks with 70% movement speed. Open map, then use flask, run as fast as possible, don’t kill anything, unless you need to refill flasks, just look for trial.

This way you can run approximately 60 maps per hour. Yes, boring, but allows to complete whole trials within 2-3 hours, even SSF.

If you are in SSF, you probably will not have hundreds of silver coins, but "the lost map" prophecy is really very popular, sometimes you can even have "the dream trial". Personally, I play "semi SSF", usually alone and I never asked anyone for help with trials. This league I wasn't in rush, but managed to complete all trials within few days, using method mentioned above.

Use global 820 for missing one.