Watch Path of Exile live and win a Helmet Skin with Twitch Drops!
" It is only accumulating in the sense that any static chance accumulates in a series. Note that only after 41.65 hours, 500 dice rolls with a 99% failure rate, do we finally hit 99% chance of having acquired the helmet. There is a chance that you would not get a hat if you watched streams for the entire length of the promotion, but it is statistically insignificant. I would give up if you don't have it after 42 hours, because you are either cursed or something is wrong. Last edited by Unburied_One on Nov 28, 2017, 11:55:32 PM
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" No, each roll is separate. You get 12 chances of 1% per hour, 288 individual chances in a day, and so on. Since each roll is separate you'll never have a guaranteed 100% chance but the odds get to 99%+ relatively quickly. | |
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Can we have verification please if the 1% is accumulative or it reset after 5 min. Can we have a guaranteed prize after 8hrs? I'm asking because my internet is not unlimited, I'm using "metered" internet connection, I just want to know if I'm just going to waste my bandwidth... & no, I have also no plan on just buying those helmets. TIA
"A game IS supposed to waste your time but it's not supposed to make you FEEL like you're wasting your time:
It's supposed to make you WANT to waste your time." |
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" it's called probability it's what happens when you give yourself repeated chances to do something that is possible in any universe that has math. what are they teaching in school these days XD "only 10% of players care about melee" - Aesop's Fox if he was a GGG dev
"when you die in this game, typically you're getting one shot, you're dieing in one frame; almost always" -Ben_ |
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" It's not guaranteed. The post states that on average it will take 8.33 hours. 8.3333... * 12 = ~100%. There's a 1% chance per roll. If the 1% was cumulative it would not take an average of 8.3333 hours. Since 8.333 hours would be the cap at 100%, it would take less than an hour to reach the average if it was cumulative, if my rushed up math isn't horribly wrong. " 8.33 is the average because 8.3333... * 12 = 100%. That's by mathematical definition the average, no matter how unintuitive you find it to be. Lucky people will get before the average, unlucky people will or will not get after that. If you individually sum every single probability space up until n hours, the average will trend to 8.333333 hours. Since you can never have a 100% guaranteed chance of winning the helm, you can do that process up to infinity if you want, and the limit of the summation is a convergent series that will still yield the average of 8.3333 hours. Or you can just divide 100 by 12 (times each roll occurs in an hour) and get the average as they did. Would you feel more comfortable if you had a static 10% chance of rolling every hour? Last edited by ergoduck on Nov 29, 2017, 12:22:18 AM
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" Unless one is cursed with bad fortune. Then probability does not apply even in a billion lives. And the only hope is to wear a Kikazaru or two. Last edited by Sinaranu on Oct 13, 2019, 6:26:17 PM
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" yeah, but in warframe a lot of that shit you can get for free simply by farming Oblivious
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I am pleasantly surprised by this. Good job GGG.
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" My thoughts exacly. Aint gonna sign up on Twitch and view someone else playing for the sake of getting some cosmetic reward. Thanks but no thanks. Enjoy it if you enjoy streams 😊 | |
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linked, watched 3 hours already, nothing.
24.1.2018 [quote="Dro28"]wheres my fragment tab?[/quote]
(I thought that was a joke) 25.1.2018: GGG- Introducing the Fragment Stash Tab! |
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