The economy cannot grow forever
"Only in its simplest concept. To grow one's economy faster than one's workforce a nation needs to be able to fill those growing jobs with qualified workers. Qualified workers are usually the hard part. For Austin, TX to grow its local economy as it has done, it has needed to import workers as it sells its products and services to the rest of Texas, the nation and around the world. A nation is also likely to need to import an appropriate workforce. We have seen this in the US. A community or nation cannot grow its economy (create a bigger pie) unless it increases the inflow of money from outside the community or nation. Without that import of money, a community or nation is just recirculating its existing dollars. Internal productivity can help, but a growing population is very demanding in its need for jobs. "Gratitude is wine for the soul. Go on. Get drunk." Rumi
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The anti immigration brouhaha we see today that comes from the trump faithful is because of their inability to get jobs that are above the bottom rungs. They are not equipped to get the jobs that are available. poor education, poor skill sets, the jobs are not in their town, etc. They are lost and abandoned. The economy and job markets have passed them by. They are the blacksmiths of our generation.
There are enough of them to make a political difference in the short run. Mexican immigration into the US has been an issue because of its longevity and magnitude. The racists have worked hard to turn it negative when most other people understand its value. Anti immigration is an untenable position if you want long term economic growth; you just need things to sell. For nations (or communities) without any export capacity, huge influxes of people are doomed unless those people bring money. Phoenix is a good example. When they became a major retirement location, thousands of people began to arrive. They would have been a huge drain on Arizona except that they brought all those government pensions and investment income with them. The economy of Phoenix and AZ has grown because of it. "Gratitude is wine for the soul. Go on. Get drunk." Rumi
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The whole premise of the article is based on the author's assertion that material growth can't continue forever because man is using up all the materials on earth.
So the article is basically a plea to please reduce, re-use, and recycle. The problem is that the author assumes that earth's mass is static and that we live in a vacuum of earth's finite natural resources. This is a wrong assumption. Earth actually gains 40,000 tons of mass from space per year (think meteors, space dust, alien visitations and time travelers from other dimensions dumping their garbage on us) So the article falls apart simply because material growth can actually continue forever. I want cut scenes damnit.
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" Yes, because the average Mexican is better educated than the average American. And the average African is better educated and with a higher skill set than an average European. /s Immigration "is needed" because: 1.) Entitled & spoiled millennials don't want to do "dirty" trade jobs 2.) Businesses can easier exploit foreign workers, esp. illegals 3.) States don't enforce law, therefore illegals keep coming but most importantly: 4.) "Liberated" westerners don't have enough kids to sustain the welfare ponzi scheme, so you need to import workers from countries that still have a positive population growth rate. If it wasn't for immigration many western countries would have a negative population growth, which at some point would mean that the <current taxpayer population> could not sustain the <current entitlements population>. When night falls She cloaks the world In impenetrable darkness Last edited by morbo on Jul 20, 2017, 4:00:31 AM
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" I was expecting more persistent stagnation of advanced economies and export-led developing economies shift their economy away from reliance on investment and industry toward domestic consumption and services. Tariffs and quotas on imports with intention of protecting local businesses and jobs from foreign competition. Expecting more downturn in export sector when economies mature. |
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"I disagree. The error in the logic chain in the article occurs in point 3 by conflating the concept "material goods economy" with "material goods economic growth." It is acceptable for spending power to be spent on material goods so long as such spending power doesn't result in growth of the material goods market; in other words, the market for services eventually becomes the sole focus of economic growth. It's even possible for the material goods economy to shrink while the service economy grows at such a rate that there is net economic growth. Economics should be properly understood as systems for allocation of human time with the intent of maximizing value; this definition covers even moneyless economies such as the management of opportunity cost of a lone survivor on a deserted island. The problem with envirocommunism — let's face it, that's pretty much what that website advocates — is that it assumes the only values achievable by man are material. This isn't true and ignores the concepts of intellectual work, achievement and property. The point at which economic growth will become impossible will not be when we run out of new resources to harvest, but when we run out of new work to do. When Stephen Colbert was killed by HYDRA's Project Insight in 2014, the comedy world lost a hero. Since his life model decoy isn't up to the task, please do not mistake my performance as political discussion. I'm just doing what Steve would have wanted. Last edited by ScrotieMcB on Jul 22, 2017, 4:58:20 PM
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" Just because you're clearly disappointed with your life doesn't mean people who are against illegal immigration are all the strawman you paint in your mind so you can feel superior The same exact "brouhaha" came from democrats in the '90s but we can just ignore that because they're the good guys anything is everything Last edited by Manocean on Jul 22, 2017, 4:44:55 PM
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Slightly misleading question but rather simple answer. Lots of bla bla in this thread. In particular two guys should get a room.
The definition of economic growth is an "increase in goods and services". Now the next part may seem like some big talk but it's actually how it is. It's entirely bound to how well homo sapiens is doing, if we are on the rise or in decline. Thus far, and for any foreseeable future there will be economic growth for mankind. We will continue to grow in number and we will continue to raise the average level of technology - that drive leads to an increase in goods and services. However it is true that infinite economic growth is not possible because we will one day die off, or our conditions will worsen. More detailed explanation: There will be temporary setbacks, for example if we run out of oil it will be a massive setback, but it will not mean humanity is in terminal decline, we have neither exhausted the planet, maxed our numbers, or run out of resources, nor do we have any real competitors for dominance - although it could be hard to see if the oil period would, looking-back, be the prime-time of humanity and no other energy sources of it's level found, but i doubt that. Eventually, if our planet is not one-shot destroyed and we die off due to whatever, in the most extreme case the sun dying out and thus our conditions worsening, we will theoretically reach a limit, although not actually a limit as it will be an asymptote, until whatever happens that ends us. I guestimate that it will be chaotic universal forces that will put and end to us before we reach our equilibrium capacity for goods and services on earth. The most important aspect of economic growth is technological growth - and that will forever occur. An example everyone should be able to relate to is the extreme growth human kind has seen since recorded history and even since whenever we can look back - our technology has increased greatly and thereby so has the amount of goods and services we are able to produce. Just look 50 years back- a whole different world, then look back to before industrialization - and even now we get more and more efficient in our technology still. Every year improved capacity, better results. So to round it off, for all purposes in the forseeable future and well beyond, yes there will be economic growth and it is to be expected as it goes hand in hand with technological growth - but ultimately that growth will not be infinite mankind will not be infinite. It is tied to how well humanity is doing - whether we are rising or declining. Pockets of humanity may defy the global trends based on choices and conditions, the above is about the total economy of mankind. I am the light of the morning and the shadow on the wall, I am nothing and I am all. Last edited by Crackmonster on Jul 23, 2017, 6:23:39 AM
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Wow. I actually slightly prefer Crack's explanation to my own, although they're very similar.
Politically, I identity as a prosperity centrist. What that means is: the laws that grow the economy are good and the laws that shrink the economy are bad. Benefit minus costs equals profit, on a case-by-case basis. Minimizing overhead. Etc. Although I have reasonable concerns about the methods used to measure economic indicators, but in general I consider politics to be a science and economic growth the metric of merit, because I truly believe that economic growth is bound to how well we are doing. When Stephen Colbert was killed by HYDRA's Project Insight in 2014, the comedy world lost a hero. Since his life model decoy isn't up to the task, please do not mistake my performance as political discussion. I'm just doing what Steve would have wanted.
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"Nice post. Much of how to solve our GDP growth problem lies in the scale of the perspective. Looking at growth in Dearborn MI versus the Midwest versus the US versus the world are all very different and have different solutions. The smaller one's perspective the clearer the solutions (though those are not necessarily easier). Increasing the community, state, regional, national or global wealth happens when the money/resources flowing into an economy from outside of it increases faster than the population grows. At the highest level of the global economy that is not possible yest so productivity improvements are the best tools to increase overall wealth. The anticipated growth of AI and its increasing role will drive productivity and the general welfare. The new wealth will not be spread evenly, it never is, but as we have seen over the past 100 years, life will improve for many at the bottom of things. many of the very bad things will be lessened and that is improvement. To have a sensible discussion of growth you have to define exactly what we are talking about up front: The US? Kentucky? Europe? Africa? Without those boundaries we will be just pissing in the wind. Immigration is just one piece of the puzzle as is birth rate and population aging. After choosing the geography of the discussion selecting what one wants as the result of growth to be is important. Does it mean jobs or more money in the community? They are not necessarily the same. "Gratitude is wine for the soul. Go on. Get drunk." Rumi
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