The North Korean Situation

I don't know if this is a situation yet, on the same scope as the Syrian situation, but it might be soon.

https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/851823079730823170

I have no idea who this guy is or whether or not he's trustworthy, but he's suggesting that the US either will, or is strongly considering doing a 'pre-emptive' North Korea missile strike which would resemble the Syrian Tomahawk missile strike. A 'one-off' strike enacted to demonstrate that this administration both talks loudly and carries a big stick, or something like that.

Mr. Posobiec suggests that the target may be the "KN-14" missile that NK claims can reach Toronto/Chicago.

Maybe it's pure bs, and his source is wrong but...well I'll leave this here for consideration. He also has had a couple tweets recently saying that China and Russia are moving their 'chess pieces' as well.
Last bumped on Apr 12, 2017, 8:43:01 AM
N KR loves to talk shit basically but they never do anything <.< but US is prepared to fuck them up basically if they DO try anything.

I dunno WHY you would wanna provoke a fucking super power out of all things.
Dys an sohm
Rohs an kyn
Sahl djahs afah
Mah morn narr
"
innervation wrote:
or is strongly considering doing a 'pre-emptive' North Korea missile strike which would resemble the Syrian Tomahawk missile strike. A 'one-off' strike enacted to demonstrate that this administration both talks loudly and carries a big stick, or something like that.

Highly unlikely. NK would retaliate on the South (Seoul is an easy target), so there is no such thing as "one off" strike in the NK case. You either destroy their military completely and invade the country, or do nothing.

Since going all in militarily would be very costly and those poor commie bastards have nothing worth pillaging to repay the war cost, my bet is that nothing will happen. The US has done nothing in the past decade to stop NK from developing WMDs/ICBMs, so I guess the same thing will continue: wait for the country to collapse from within.
When night falls
She cloaks the world
In impenetrable darkness
If anything happens, dont expect China to come to the defense of NK.
China will be involved if a war breaks, but only with the interest of taking NK territory to themselves.

Fatso has behaved badly for a while, sure he seems to blow hot air most of the time, but its a case where you risk ignoring him until he actually does something. I believe NK is a problem that needs to be tackled, and I think its better to do so before they truly become capable of hitting back.

WW3 coming out of this is a meme. Hell, WW3 is the biggest clickbait there is.
China doesnt want it, Russia doesnt want it, the US doesnt want it. If a news outlet tells you otherwise then it might be time to change the channel

EDIT: the problem is SK would be an easy target if shit started, I guess that's why nothing has been done about it, also what morbo said; whats in that for the US?

either way its a shitty situation. I dont quite go for the "wait for them to collapse from the inside", there's an high chance that the south will get hit either way. The question is when.
Ideally a revolution would happen, but I dont think hoping for the best is the way to tackle reality
So I guess the way to do it if it was to be done, would be establish a very good defense in the south, then crush them with overwhelming forces
Oblivious
Last edited by Disrupted on Apr 11, 2017, 1:21:53 PM
Trump is stupid and crazy enough to attack with great military force. And people thought Hillary would be worse. Theyre the same.
"
Disrupted wrote:
If anything happens, dont expect China to come to the defense of NK.
China will be involved if a war breaks, but only with the interest of taking NK territory to themselves.

Fatso has behaved badly for a while, sure he seems to blow hot air most of the time, but its a case where you risk ignoring him until he actually does something. I believe NK is a problem that needs to be tackled, and I think its better to do so before they truly become capable of hitting back.

WW3 coming out of this is a meme. Hell, WW3 is the biggest clickbait there is.
China doesnt want it, Russia doesnt want it, the US doesnt want it. If a news outlet tells you otherwise then it might be time to change the channel

the problem is SK would be an easy target if shit started, I guess that's why nothing has been done about it, also what morbo said; whats in that for the US?


That's why I mentioned (and I assume JP mentioned) that China and Russia are moving pieces. Morbo is right on that NK would want to do something in return to save face, which may be why we sent a carrier group there recently (air defense, dissuasion), and would want (nearly need) to have Russia and China be neutral/helpful in anything that happens.

What's in it for the US/China/Russia? Just spitballing here:

Russia - one less crazy nuclear dictator in their hemisphere. They probably have the same impression as you, Disrupted, which is to say that the world has basically been ignoring NK and doing some occasional finger wagging, but mostly ignoring their hot air. They may increasingly see this as a 'problem that needs to be tackled', and by letting the USA lead, and China be their sidekick, they get a potentially good outcome with very little risk/investment of their own.

China - as you say, interested in what a broken NK could offer them. Everyone says China is always looking far into the future, like 50-150 years. Much more so than western elected officials. They may suspect that this is a 'problem' that will have fallout no matter when it's resolved, so this is their chance to resolve it while getting on America's good side, or using it as leverage in trade talks by looking the other way while the US does what it wants to in their backyard. I believe Trump recently said something to the effect of 'If China could deal with North Korea, they'd get a much better trade deal from us'.

The USA. Oh boy, what do we get out of it? Depends on the scenario that plays out. Seems incredibly high risk, high reward in the short term. If you can picture a best case scenario, it's great right? The worst case scenario being nuclear war ofc, which is...uh...bad mmkay?
"
innervation wrote:
"
Disrupted wrote:
If anything happens, dont expect China to come to the defense of NK.
China will be involved if a war breaks, but only with the interest of taking NK territory to themselves.

Fatso has behaved badly for a while, sure he seems to blow hot air most of the time, but its a case where you risk ignoring him until he actually does something. I believe NK is a problem that needs to be tackled, and I think its better to do so before they truly become capable of hitting back.

WW3 coming out of this is a meme. Hell, WW3 is the biggest clickbait there is.
China doesnt want it, Russia doesnt want it, the US doesnt want it. If a news outlet tells you otherwise then it might be time to change the channel

the problem is SK would be an easy target if shit started, I guess that's why nothing has been done about it, also what morbo said; whats in that for the US?


That's why I mentioned (and I assume JP mentioned) that China and Russia are moving pieces. Morbo is right on that NK would want to do something in return to save face, which may be why we sent a carrier group there recently (air defense, dissuasion), and would want (nearly need) to have Russia and China be neutral/helpful in anything that happens.

What's in it for the US/China/Russia? Just spitballing here:

Russia - one less crazy nuclear dictator in their hemisphere. They probably have the same impression as you, Disrupted, which is to say that the world has basically been ignoring NK and doing some occasional finger wagging, but mostly ignoring their hot air. They may increasingly see this as a 'problem that needs to be tackled', and by letting the USA lead, and China be their sidekick, they get a potentially good outcome with very little risk/investment of their own.

China - as you say, interested in what a broken NK could offer them. Everyone says China is always looking far into the future, like 50-150 years. Much more so than western elected officials. They may suspect that this is a 'problem' that will have fallout no matter when it's resolved, so this is their chance to resolve it while getting on America's good side, or using it as leverage in trade talks by looking the other way while the US does what it wants to in their backyard. I believe Trump recently said something to the effect of 'If China could deal with North Korea, they'd get a much better trade deal from us'.

The USA. Oh boy, what do we get out of it? Depends on the scenario that plays out. Seems incredibly high risk, high reward in the short term. If you can picture a best case scenario, it's great right? The worst case scenario being nuclear war ofc, which is...uh...bad mmkay?


America has way more made in China than the other way around. America needs China in good graces. And Russia and China dont want N Korea to fall or else they get a US military base close to them which they would not like. Thats why China kept N Korea under its wing despite sanctions against N Korea. You really think Russia and China want the US in their territory?

This will kick off some bad situation, how bad we can only wait and see. Depends on who the crazier leader is, Trump or Kim.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/trump-orders-military-advisers-prepare-10197448

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/china-moves-150000-troops-medical-10199100
I suppose that South Korea also does not want to take care for the impoverished brothers up north, in a post-war scenario. An "unification" of both Koreas would be an economic suicide for the South and probably a political suicide in long term (who would wanna give the right to vote to millions of brainwashed communists?). I don't think the South is enthusiast about a war, even in a scenario where no direct military damage happens to them.

If a war happens and the regime is destroyed, who will occupy NK? The Chinese? Maybe Trump has made a deal with Xi, to turn NK into a Chinese puppet state or "special province". The Chinese have a few millions of excess men to use as fodder & settlers, so an occupation would be a piece of cake for them. The US & SK contribute the fireworks and China picks up the pieces afterwards?
When night falls
She cloaks the world
In impenetrable darkness
Last edited by morbo on Apr 11, 2017, 2:11:48 PM
"
innervation wrote:
I don't know if this is a situation yet, on the same scope as the Syrian situation, but it might be soon.

https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/851823079730823170

I have no idea who this guy is or whether or not he's trustworthy, but he's suggesting that the US either will, or is strongly considering doing a 'pre-emptive' North Korea missile strike which would resemble the Syrian Tomahawk missile strike. A 'one-off' strike enacted to demonstrate that this administration both talks loudly and carries a big stick, or something like that.

Mr. Posobiec suggests that the target may be the "KN-14" missile that NK claims can reach Toronto/Chicago.

Maybe it's pure bs, and his source is wrong but...well I'll leave this here for consideration. He also has had a couple tweets recently saying that China and Russia are moving their 'chess pieces' as well.


I don't think your sponsor would let go. They wanted US military to come back especially to middle-east to do jobs but not in Asia.
Stop Bombing Syria
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