RNG finally caught up to me this league

So far this league I have:

chanced skyforth
8ex pure has dropped
fused 5 regalias in less than 300 fuse
dropped a 1% off perfect ToH
generally made more money than ever before as i continue to learn this game

Then this happened:



I crafted that in about 2ex10c. I'd never crafted anything decent from scratch so was pretty excited about it despite knowing that sub-850 isn't going for tons at this point in the league, but I thought surely I wouldnt' lose money on this guy if I finished the craft and fused it.

Got 6 sockets in like 10 jewelers.

I am now 2,447 fuse into this and no 6link . . . I spent all my trans/augs/alts/jews/exalts on fuses trying to get this guy to link.

Man, this hurts.
Last edited by AHAB_10 on Jan 14, 2017, 2:07:48 PM
Last bumped on Jan 17, 2017, 1:07:14 AM
I've spent well over 1,000 so far on and 886 ES dual res regalia. I feel your pain.
U MAD?
Last edited by Docbp87 on Jan 14, 2017, 6:33:36 PM
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Docbp87 wrote:
I've spent well over 1,000 so far on and 886 ES dual res regalia. I feel your pain.


Let me know when you get to 15ex in fuses . . .

My average was like 500 before today. RIP

I don't even know if I shoudl keep going on it. Kinda makes me wonder if items actually have set amounts when they are created and some are just completely outlandish. There are some numbers out there that assume a fuse has a .067% chance to make a 6link. So, in order for me not to get a 6link by 2447 in, I believe the math is the probability of missing it .933^2447 = 2 x 10^-74%

Either that assumption is wildly off or something is going on behind the scenes that we don't fully understand about the "probability," like predetermined failures. That math says this roll is statistically impossible basically.

I'm not going tinfoil hat, but I am pondering the mechanics of the linking code.
The last time i 6linked something it took me 3200 fuses, that was in talisman when it was 90-100 fuses for an exalt. So thats around 35 ex. After that i tried my luck again in perandus league. Gave up after failing with 2200 fuses. Never tried to 6l anything since.
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Krayken wrote:
The last time i 6linked something it took me 3200 fuses, that was in talisman when it was 90-100 fuses for an exalt. So thats around 35 ex. After that i tried my luck again in perandus league. Gave up after failing with 2200 fuses. Never tried to 6l anything since.


That makes me sad. :(
if the average cost is somewhere around 1200 fusing to 6 link then it shouldnt come as a surprise that you can go double or triple that without hitting it.
The old 6-Link discussion ;)

I've been through this discussion over and over with a friend. He refuses everytime to try and 6-Link anything, He just spares fuses for the Masterbench.

I always try to 6Link when it looks like a good idea. In every league I 6Linked at least one Item. In breach I had the luck to 6 Link my Jack in under 300 Fuses. Now I 6Linked a Reach with over 900. So could be worse.
I do had the fail on standard once, that it cost me over 1300 Fuses to 6 Link something and mentioned friend tried once to 6Link and gave up on 2k Fuses.

In the end its a gamble. Everytime. But the math is on our side: just try to 6 Link often enough and in the end you will end on an average of 1.2k fuses. Lol.
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StorgutBorsit wrote:
But the math is on our side: just try to 6 Link often enough and in the end you will end on an average of 1.2k fuses. Lol.


This is the single largest problem I have with it. Especially since this is supposed to be "crafting." If you are truly crafting something then you have some knowledge of what you are doing. Fusing an item, or even giving it sockets or hitting T1 rolls should all have some distribution that a "crafter" should know (GGG should publish these) so that the player can make an informed decision.

And it wouldn't have to make something like the Vorici bench useless. For instance, if the average 6link truly does take 1200 fuses but the standard deviation is more than 100, then Vorici is your best option if you are trying to minimize risk with a 99% likelihood of linking in 1500 fuse on that item. On the other hand, if you are playing the long game and using crafting as a way to create value over time, then self-linking would be the preferred method with large amounts of currency to cover the variability.

Until then, it should be re-named gambling.
Last edited by AHAB_10 on Jan 15, 2017, 11:10:02 AM
Just an FYI, I just sold this chest for 4ex and the buyer linked it in 90 fusings . . .

Gratz, buyer.

Really really REALLY curious now if the RNG is linked to the item or the player. Anyone have insight here?
neither as far as we know, its just a constant probability on every fuse.

With such high variance of 1/1200 or there abouts its hard to make any meaningful judgement based on experience unless you are looking over a period of years. To me, over many years, it seems like 1/1200 on any fusing is probably about right.

Sometimes an item can seem to be cursed, Ive gone well over 3k on a heges staff recently, the thing just seemed intent on not linking forever. But logic has to tell you its foolish to buy into such notions when thats obviously well within expected results from such odds.

how many times do you have to roll a 6 sided dice to land on a 6? Maybe once, maybe 12 times, neither should be that surprising. If you just keep rolling it over and over youre gonna hit 2 in a row at some point and have a gap of 12 or more somewhere in there, maybe a gap of 20, 30 in a row with no 6. Ive seen an item link within 100 fuisng on many occasions and Ive seen it take over 3000 quite a few times too, its extreme variance rng.

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