Probability that you get a key till the end of closed beta is 18 %

And here is the calculation (some values are rough estimates, the only condition is relying on random generator, no friend's gifts, dealings, etc.):

start of closed beta: August 10th 2011 (about 170 days ago)

end of closed beta: April 2012 (unconfirmed, about 100 days to go)

number of registred members: 1 000 000 (my approximation, correct me, if you can)

timer: each 5 minutes random new key

formulas
--------
170 * 24 * 60 / 5 = 48 960
100 * 24 * 60 / 5 = 28 800

28 800 / (1 000 000 - 48 960) = 0,03 (3 %)
--------

Not much, but at least something. :)
Last edited by Godefroy on Jan 21, 2012, 9:23:23 AM
Proabylities are true only when the number of attemps is close to infinity, at all other times it's 50%, simply yes, or no.
Well its better then a sharp stick in the eye
Well, for me watching as others play while i can not feel quite similiar to sharp stick in the eye.
So is that 3% per day? or 3% from now until open beta?

I HIGHLY doubt its 50%, someone needs to take a stats course lol
Your account estimation is... wildly inaccurate :)
If you want to ignore all friend invites, promotional keys, giveaways, etc.:

181,766 accounts.
At least 25,000 timer-activated beta accounts (it wasn't always at 5min intervals).
= 156,766 eligible accounts

Keep in mind that there are almost always more than 288 accounts created per day, meaning that the distribution of beta keys via friend invites and giveaways is necessary for one's chances to improve over time.
Closed Beta/Alpha Tester back after a 10-year hiatus.
Kiwi pets and Spark spam FTW.
Last edited by WhiteBoy on Jan 20, 2012, 7:26:31 PM
Someone did the math a while back and his numbers were amazing... and more accurate than the OP. I wouldn't look too much into this 3% because I don't think that's correct.
Join the Veterans of War! See the thread in Off-topic for details.
Yes, WhiteBoy88, I knew about that. You had better idea with * search in accounts. :)

Let me adjust the calculation with your values.

-------

28 800 / (181 766 - 25 000) = 0,184 (18,4% chance to get in!)

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Comparing 25 000 (timer-activated acc. so far) and 28 800 (acc. to be activated till the end of closed beta) makes me a bit more optimistic. At least it is an upward trend.

But this is only a simple tool, no one should rely on these numbers. :)

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