RNG :(

This thing:

Took me probably 150 chromatics to make. While spamming I saw numerous occurrences of things like 2G2R, 1G1B2R, 3B1R, 4G and 4B. Vorici calculator gives 2B2R an average of 29.2 and standard deviation of 28.7. Yay for a 0.01% outlier.

why bother MF'ing this league? Cadiro sells tons of awesome stuff, and anything you could possibly want you can easily afford with no MF investment

"

databeaver wrote:

Vorici calculator gives 2B2R an average of 29.2 and standard deviation of 28.7. Yay for a 0.01% outlier.

Last time I used Vorici calculator, I was either 1 in 17 quintillion (yes, really) or the calculator's estimate was off. So, take its results with a grain of salt.

To be fair, the calcs are probably still relatively accurate for only 2 off colours. So I wouldn't be surprised if you truly were 1 in 10,000

yeah I dunno why the fuck are you mf'ing in this league lol

Have you seen my point? It's about a mile that way -->
(Insofar as I even have one, I created this thread mostly to vent frustration about bad RNG.)

If you'd bothered to mouseover the item, it's in standard league. They're decent MF boots, true, but the reason I'm using them for the alt I'm currently leveling is that they happened to be in my stash. I figured I could use a few chromatics to get the color combination I wanted, but didn't expect to spend over seven stacks.

Well you are not an 0.01% outlier. You are unlucky, but "only" 1 in 186 unlucky.

The chances to not get it in the first 150 chromes are, given that the average to chrome is 29.2 chromes:

(1-1/29.2)^150 = 0.00537 = 0.537%.

So yeah, unlucky, but not incredibly unlucky. Be thankful that that didn't happen to you while 6linking ;).

"

Char1983 wrote:

The chances to not get it in the first 150 chromes are, given that the average to chrome is 29.2 chromes:

(1-1/29.2)^150 = 0.00537 = 0.537%.

Hm, true. I used the Vorici calculator's standard deviation to arrive at 0.01% (about 4 sigmas away from average). I guess statistics are just weird for a distribution shaped like this.

I once spent ~200 alts trying to get an instant heal flask :D

E: ~60 augs as well

"

databeaver wrote:

"

Char1983 wrote:

The chances to not get it in the first 150 chromes are, given that the average to chrome is 29.2 chromes:

(1-1/29.2)^150 = 0.00537 = 0.537%.

Hm, true. I used the Vorici calculator's standard deviation to arrive at 0.01% (about 4 sigmas away from average). I guess statistics are just weird for a distribution shaped like this.

It's just not a Gaussian distribution.

Meanwhile I get a 4 red ES helm while trying to roll 2 red 2 blue....

Decided to just leave it 4 red...