Path of Maps - Track your map runs

I wanted to get back to you with some findings now that I've had some time to play with the data export you made me. Sadly work on my real research has slowed my PoE research a lot!

I made up a "Sustain Rating" that weights the sum of your map drops by their relative tier using the 3-to-1 trade-in value -- so a -3 adds 1/27, a -2 1/9, a -1 1/3, a +0 1, a +1 3 and a +2 9. So it gives a kind of "return equivalent" on the various maps that you drop, with a total sustain rating of 1 meaning you got enough maps back to be at least worth the one you ran. I played around with specifications a bit but decided I'd just report Ordinary Least Squares regressions for legibility.

I also restricted the sample to T11 or lower given the sparseness of data on the red tier maps, and I did a bit of cleaning of outliers and errors like unreported tiers.

I regressed the sustain coefficient on IIQ, Pack Size, Magic Monsters and the interactions between those variables. The estimators were pretty highly statistically significant, but small in magnitude: I found that a theoretical 116% IIQ, 24% packsize, 30% magic monsters map would give you an extra 0.64 sustain rating over not rolling the map (so roughly 2/3 an extra +0 in expectation). However, the baseline sustain rating for t11 and lower as a whole was already 2.6, so rolling maps in these data wasn't expected to add very much value.

Fitting with this theme of pretty small effect sizes, the r-squared for the entire data was only 0.0041 -- meaning that only 0.41% of the variation in map drops is explained by IIQ, Packsize, Magic Monsters and IIQ*Packsize, IIQ*Magic Monsters etc. That's REALLY small as these things go.

I don't really trust these results as they don't mesh with my own anecdotal experience, and I suspect there are some problems with the data. To give two examples, returns are left-censored at 0 because you can't drop negative maps, and the independent variables are very highly correlated i.e. high packsize maps almost always have high IIQ post-2.0. So personally I'm going to continue rolling my maps, but I thought because you were nice enough to assemble the data for me I should at least let you know these preliminary findings!

When I get more time I can try breaking it down more by tier (T6 and below yielded slightly stronger effect sizes but I didn't bother preparing them into anything interpretible because I don't think anyone cares about predicting/improving drops in white tier) and using alternative statistical models that better fit the data. But with 2.2 tomorrow and grad school at all times, it'll probably be a while. :P

Thanks a lot for releasing these findings here :) We'll have a lot more data after ascendency, maybe you can re-run your analysis on the new data set, see if it changed.

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I introduced the concept of characters to the app today, as well as leagues. Basically, you can now edit some infos about your characters on the site, and any maps run with these characters will inherit their properties (like league, zana's level for the iiq bonus, etc).

I'll soon make it possible to search maps by leagues, which will make it in turn possible to view stats for a given league.

That's great to hear! I'd love to work with it again in a couple months, when there's more data and I have more free time.

Hi, great work you did here! I hope separate leagues are incoming soon :)

Also few things:
- Could you please make it also possible to not just track types of currencies dropped in map but also amount? (for example if i link stack of 2 chaoses and then later one chaos it will display i got 3 chaoses and not just that a chaos orb dropped)
- Little inconsistency in PoM app: above path field there is "Full path of the Client.txt log FILE." but in the path field itself is caption "Logs FOLDER path". I entered path to folder (not the file) as the caption said, indicator turned from red to green but app didn't work. Took me half an hour to figure out it must me path to the file and not to the folder containing the file. Especially hard to figure it out since indicator told me it is correct by turning on the green light which made me sure that path is not cause of my problem, but it was..

Good work! I am looking forward to using this during perandus :) Thanks!

EDIT: And please add possibility to add Cadiro to the map like you can add master. I'd like to track how many times i had him. Would be awesome.

EDIT2: Cannot add following map drop

Hey :)

I'll add the ability to track cadiro this week.

Yep, this is the old Mine map that's been renamed... I wonder why. Maybe because Mine is now another tileset, and that didnt make sense. Anyways, I'll fix that soon, and add the Chateau map.

I played the league like crazy these past 4 days, to see if what they said was true: if you play a lot at first and get to maps before most, you can make quite a bit of currency. Turns out, it's true ^^.

Also, check out how lucky I got on day 2 :) First time 6-linking an item myself after all this time :)

Hey, gratz on your 6L! You gotta be really rich if you are 6Ling already!

Btw i noticed one more thing - i cannot include to drops those new unique jewels such as Hair Trigger.

Thanks! And actually, I'm not :) I had bought the lightning coil very early for 1 exa, and then just let it sit in my stash because I had dropped a 5L and was using that instead.
Then later I saw this guy in chat brag about dropping a LC, so I thought, let's try to 5L mine. I 6S'd it in a few jewelers, and then used ALL my fusings, and got nothing... Then I sold all my jewelers for fusing and bam, 6L :D I did a little victory lap around my living room haha.

Anyways...

When did you last try to add the Hair trigger jewel? Yesterday evening, I updated the list of uniques I support. Although if it's not in the wiki list, then it's not there. I'll check specifically later for this one.

I also added support for the Abandoned Cave Map, and the Chateau Map :)

The league is now also displayed on maps, but there seems to be a huge bug where the league is not applied to the map properly in a lot of cases. But sometimes, it is. It's weird ^^. I'll try to fix it today.

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niuage wrote:

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When did you last try to add the Hair trigger jewel? Yesterday evening, I updated the list of uniques I support. Although if it's not in the wiki list, then it's not there. I'll check specifically later for this one.

I also added support for the Abandoned Cave Map, and the Chateau Map :)

The league is now also displayed on maps, but there seems to be a huge bug where the league is not applied to the map properly in a lot of cases. But sometimes, it is. It's weird ^^. I'll try to fix it today.

Super excited for all of this. My solo character should be to maps by the end of the day, so I look forward to testing out the site/program with many of the new additions over the weekend.

Thanks for keeping the program updated, and the community up to date on what is being improved.

No problemo ;) Thanks for being a part of it!

@tululum: about your proposition to track the stack size of currencies... I'm somewhat already doing it, but not displaying it. I'm afraid it would force users to record their drop in a certain way. But maybe that's ok. Like, let's say you drop a chaos, and record it right away, which I think many people do, and then you drop another one, it would get stacked with the first one in your inventory, and then if you reported it again, it would could as 2... Not sure how to get around that.

Ok, the bug should be fixed, and the characters' leagues should be applied to the maps they're running. If they're not, let me know :)