Will Standard inflation of orbs:ex ever slow down?

The exalted orb was buffed into a pseudo eternal orb. I dont think people are taking this into consideration when they talk about how the price of the exalted orb is continuing to rise. It is now more useful than it was previously but the rising cost isnt inherently bad yet people seem to only focus on the negative side of things.

For every exalt you find your now able to buy an enormous amount of lesser crafting orbs, far more than you could pre 2.0. That means zana mods are cheaper, chaos spamming your maps/items is cheaper, alt/auging magic items is cheaper ect.

People should be finding better items now as well. Loot filters allow people to flter out specific items so they spend less time picking up items that could potentially be junk and more time picking up items that could potentially be sold for profit.

Higher tier uniques now drop more often so people should be able to find useful uniques on their own and if not, the items they need are only going to get cheaper the more common they become.

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SirSid wrote:

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StDrakeX wrote:

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SirSid wrote:

Items in standard should be deflating in the other direction why is this not happaning ?

Get back to me with the items that have inflated in your opinion

How about a level 4 empower

Perfect item to pay attention to since once introduced into standard it will never leave since non are lots to corruption

The price of this item in standard has almost never changed since it came into game , in fact you could say it has gone up in price ?

Empower 4 has done nothing but go down in price since it was introduced into the game. The first ones in existence sold for over 100ex. I regularly decline trade offers that include empower/enhance lvl 4 as trade options as they do not hold their value.

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Dethklok wrote:

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SirSid wrote:

How about a level 4 empower

Perfect item to pay attention to since once introduced into standard it will never leave since non are lots to corruption

The price of this item in standard has almost never changed since it came into game , in fact you could say it has gone up in price ?

Empower 4 has done nothing but go down in price since it was introduced into the game. The first ones in existence sold for over 100ex. I regularly decline trade offers that include empower/enhance lvl 4 as trade options as they do not hold their value.

Shouldn't even bother with people who seem to have selective cherry picking memory to bring "empower" as the example...

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Andrius319 wrote:

ok, today is that tomorrow.
Did some formula buildings and came up that chaos:ex ratio is same ratio as ratio of attempts needed to craft same tier item.
I was stunned by the amount of chaos orbs required to craft t1 mod item, it's just silly amounts of attempts compared to number of attempts using exalted.

the more perfect item u seek the more ratio approaches roughly the number of rerolls required to get 3 first t1 item mods, which usually are hardly high rollable mods such as increased physical damage.

Best usage for chaos is creating meh items. Because it reduces rerolls required and so the ratio goes down.

Spoiler

Base formula in crafting 6 mod item (considering chaos always gives 6 mods)
xi- x attempts required to craft t1 mod as i mod on item.
((((1.125alterations*x1*x2+1regal+1scour)*x3+1ex+1scour)*x4+1ex+1scour)*x5+1ex+1scour)*x6/
/(1chaos*x1*x2*x3*x4*x5*x6) = 1 (equals 1 considering both methods costs same)
extract from this 1ex/1chaos and on other side u will find ratio.

u should find that, that is:
1ex/1chaos= (1-3.5/(x1*x2)-1.125alt/chaos)*x1*x2*x3*x4*x5/(1+x5+x4*x5)-1scour/chaos

Thanks for doing that, but I honestly can't make heads or tails of that equation! Some questions.

So what ratio did you come up with for a 6 T1 item?

What happens if you open it up to say 3 T1's and 3 T2+'s?

Can this function be plotted easily?

I can't tell if this is accounted for. But, the exalt crafting method is going for specific mods which have varying likelihoods of rolling, have you given some thought to how this may change the results as compared to the chaos method which has the opportunity to hit upon multiple equally valuable combinations? It seems like this behavior of chaos crafting is going to have a substantial impact on the ratio which isn't accounted for. (as I think, I may be misunderstanding this a bit, but oh well, feel free to enlighten)

If you have the time, break it down and explain like I'm 5... well, maybe not that simple, but I'm intrigued!

My prediction for standard economy by June 2016:

90 chaos:110 fusings:1000 chroms:1000alts: 500 jewels:1 exalt:6L Daresso's

Of course it will eventually slow down. There is a certain ratio for how often ex drop and how often chaos drop. There is a ratio of how often each type is used. Once the price of an ex reaches somewhere in between those other 2, it should stabilize. And the more valuable ex become, the less people will actually USE them rather than trading them away. Also, at some point, it would be easier to just keep using chaos orbs on the item until you get the stats you want. And finally, if the ratio gets TOO extreme, people will just start using something else as the primary currency, again driving the ex value back down.

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1235 wrote:

also is it that hard to add a fucking exalt recipe?

Of course it's not HARD. It's probably as simple as a single line in a config file somewhere. But that's not something they WANT to have in the game. They want the players to be the ones to determine what things are worth, especially for more valuable items. Is understanding THAT so hard?

@Shaihalud222
i didn't put any number in because there are way too many variables in deciding what actual numbers will every xi will get. Mainly because there is no official source of probabilities for each mod to roll. And there is different number of mods for each item.

And other source of variable is crafters desires- what mod does he want (t1 not t1, is it increased phys damage (hard to roll this one high)), and how many combinations of mods does he accept. Which means every item has different costs using ex and using chaos. It is difficult to say absolute average ratio.

ok, lets just assume we know and lets put example numbers.
lets say there is 10 suffixes and 10 prefixes, and every affix has 10 tiers and all of them has same probability to roll, players accepts only one mod combination and wants all t1 (this one going to be silly numbers for sure):
then x1=10*10/3 (1/x1 is probability, and x1 is average number of rolls needed and x1 we will use)
x2=10*10/3; x3=10*9/2; x4=10*9/2; x5=10*8/1; x6=10*8/1; (repeats because suffix and prefix is different category)
then chaos:ex ratio will be= 45688 chaos/ex
if player is satisfied with t1 and t2 mods, then ratio falls to 5527 chaos/ex
if player is satisfied with t5-t1 mods then ratio falls to 306 chaos/ex

on first sight it might appear as too high, but remember these numbers are for only one desired combination, if there would be two acceptable combinations- ratio would fall drastically.

As i said previously chaos is only good for crafting meh (not BiS) items or just for rerolling bad maps.

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Hodari wrote:

Of course it will eventually slow down. There is a certain ratio for how often ex drop and how often chaos drop. There is a ratio of how often each type is used. Once the price of an ex reaches somewhere in between those other 2, it should stabilize. And the more valuable ex become, the less people will actually USE them rather than trading them away. Also, at some point, it would be easier to just keep using chaos orbs on the item until you get the stats you want. And finally, if the ratio gets TOO extreme, people will just start using something else as the primary currency, again driving the ex value back down.

This doesn't mean or explain anything at all. Chaos can be created by using the recipe, exalts cannot in any reasonable sense. It has little to do with drop rates and a lot to do with usefulness of the orb. It will take a lot more appreciation of the exalt before people resort to constant "chaos spamming" crafting. If anything, the exalt is essentially "cheaper" for using it for it's intended use because of the "new" (recently discovered) possibilities.

Dethklok hit it on the head in his post. Exalts are now able to be used for crafting like eternals were to some extent. This is causing the utility and demand of the orb to skyrocket, increasing the price. Exalts are no longer just the trading currency and occasional yolo gamble, they have a consistent crafting use now in addition to the metamod sink.

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joebagz wrote:

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Hodari wrote:

Of course it will eventually slow down. There is a certain ratio for how often ex drop and how often chaos drop. There is a ratio of how often each type is used. Once the price of an ex reaches somewhere in between those other 2, it should stabilize. And the more valuable ex become, the less people will actually USE them rather than trading them away. Also, at some point, it would be easier to just keep using chaos orbs on the item until you get the stats you want. And finally, if the ratio gets TOO extreme, people will just start using something else as the primary currency, again driving the ex value back down.

This doesn't mean or explain anything at all. Chaos can be created by using the recipe, exalts cannot in any reasonable sense. It has little to do with drop rates and a lot to do with usefulness of the orb. It will take a lot more appreciation of the exalt before people resort to constant "chaos spamming" crafting. If anything, the exalt is essentially "cheaper" for using it for it's intended use because of the "new" (recently discovered) possibilities.

There is still SOME ratio for the rates at which each type of orb enters the economy and a ratio for the rate at which they are used. At some point, the price will end up reflecting those ratios.

I dont think chaos spamming is realistic for top tier gear, it can happen sure but so unlikely youd be insane to try. Mid tier gear... even then its a push but at least theres some sort of hope. I chaos spam from time to time just for the fun of it and to see what I get more than really expecting something good from it. You can go through 300+ chaos on an item and get nothing worth while, thats typical not an unlucky streak.

I think what chaos spam can do atm is not replace exalts but give you a base from which to then strip prefixes/suffixes and begin the mockternal bench process with exalts.


I think crafting is in a really healthy place right now actually. I havent mentioned it much since the ventorgate scandal cause I was waiting to get my masters to 8 so I could try it and see how it all comes together. I think they really nailed it with the methods, it makes brute forcing 6x t1 things kind of impossible unless you still own some eternals. But it opens up realistic mid to high end item crafting where you are going to start with a rare u can strip down to 3 t1/t2 stats and then exalt spam for 2 affixes of whatever standard your budget will allow, finished with a 6th master crafted affix. I like that it brings in looting, game knowledge, these other aspects on top of click orb get something random which sort of feels void of any sort of skill, for want of a better term.