Advice on Linking?

So I'm trying to save up fusings so I can attempt to 5 link (or 6 link) my infernal mantle. Currently it's 4 linked and it only took me about 8 fusings to get there the first time, so I'm not terribly worried about getting back to 4 link again unless someone tells me I was incredibly lucky.

I've heard from my friends that getting 5 or 6 links on an item is incredibly rare. I have about 50 fusings so far that I've accumulated on my own and I'm thinking of selling some chaos and gemcutters to buy some more.

My question is, approximately how many fusings should I accumulate before I try to 5 link my chest? I know Vorici has a recipe, but my friends told me to do it myself just in case I get a 6 link. Any advice would be much appreciated, thanks!

You can use Vorici prices as a guide to how much on average it takes for linking. The Vorici prices are like 20% higher than you can get randomly. Getting a 4 link is easy. Getting a 5 link should cost you under 150 fusings and a 6 link should cost you under 1500 fusings. But it's random. You can get lucky or you can get unlucky. I once spent 3000 fusings (before vorici) and didn't get a 6 link. So if I want another, I'll do it with crafting. If I'd be ok with a 5 link (like your friends said), I'll do it randomly and hope I get lucky on the 6L.

If you're going for 5L, put aside 5 fusings so you can use the bench to make sure you end up with a 4 link at least even if you fail.

Awesome, makes perfect sense. Thank you.

I'll just save up/buy 150 fusings and go for it from there. Sounds like the risk is worth the potential reward, especially if vorici prices are around 20% more than the average. I'll take my chances =P

So, the way I've always seen it phrased by people far more familiar with statistics and, well, numbers in general, than I am, is that 120 fusings is the 50% point.

Let's say this another way, in general, 50% of people will 5L before they've spent 100-120 fusing, and 50% will not. If you are in that latter set of people, would you care to guess how many of them 5L within another 120 fusings?

I've gone 400 fusings without a 5L before... It was... frustrating. I usually don't have anything near so bad, but it can happen. I'd say 100 is about what I average, and less if I can get my hands on enough armourer scraps (this helps the odds, but increases the cost per fusing attempt as well as the time it takes to fuse... run the numbers to see if this is better or worse value for you.)

Good Luck!

Thanks! I'm kinda nervous because I'll probably be spending all my wealth on this when I get home D:

Phrased the way you stated, probability sounds really scary too... If it's 50% chance by 120 fuses that means it's about 75% chance with 240 fusings and I am not a lucky person t_t

InBefore accidental 6-link on 1st fuse.