Ondar's Guile keystone: need some help with math

Warning: i am a noob here - playing PoE less than a week.

Hi! I need some help about Ondar's Guile math. Specifically, about its effect against reflected projectile damage (which wiki mentions in patch notes: http://pathofexile.gamepedia.com/Ondar%27s_Guile).

But how high this additional chance to evade _reflected_ projectiles actually is? Talking about, say, a bow-based ranger, who deals most of her damage with her bow.

I assume for simplicity that the ranger has 1000 effective accuracy and 1000 effective evasion. I also assume that reflected arrow still has its initial 1000 accuracy when it hits me back (is this correct?). With those assumptions, i get the following results (using formula from this page: http://pathofexile.gamepedia.com/Evasion ) for Ondar's Guile:

base_chance_to_evade_this_reflected_arrow = 1 - 1000 / ( 1000 + (1000 / 4) ^ 0.8 ) = 1 - 1000 / ( 1000 + 82.86135) = 1 - 0.92348 = ~7.65%

And therefore, i have no choice than to assume that Ondar's Guile will _double_ this 7.65%, granting 7.65% more, to a total of 15.3% chance to evade reflected damage.

Which is suprisingly insignificant - for a keystone, that is, - effect.


Questions are:

1. is my math correct?

2. is there anything wrong in my assumptions, taken to make this math (considering high-level characters)?

3. how big problem "reflected damage" usually is for an end-game bow-based ranger (highest level maps where typical farm for items and experience takes place after completing merciless)?

4. what are somewhat "typical" accuracy and evasion values for bow-based character end-game?

5. are there any "outside of the scope of the normal hit/evade formula" means to increase base evade chance against "our own" projectiles (when they get reflected back at us), and if there are - what are they?

I suspect that end-game, bow-based character won't have much more evasion than accuracy; alas, the formula seems to be very demanding for extra evasion to make any noticeable difference - dozens times higher evasion than accuracy, and i guess such a situation won't happen with end-game bow-based character, who needs lots of accuracy to hit things in the 1st place...


Any help is greatly appreciated...
Last edited by Fins_FinsT on Jan 28, 2015, 10:14:20 AM
Your math is right but your numbers aren't realistic. You can get more than 1000 evasion on 1 piece of armour. Reflect is a big problem in end game if you have high dps. When you get to that point, I think the most common solution is to use Vaal Pact.

As far as realistic numbers go, I'd say 2000 accuracy and 8000 evasion might be closer to what you're going to have with average gear and passive investment. Flasks, Grace, and Vaal Grace can give you a boost when you need it too.
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Thanks for fast reply, and for numbers.

As i expected, though, using your numbers changes very little. With 8000 evasion and 2000 accuracy, it'll be some ~18% base evade chance vs one's own reflected projectiles. Ondar's then would double it to 36%. This is no doubt "better", already "significant", but still is not in any way serious solution to the problem which, you said, indeed exists.
thing is you get ondars anyway because its god tier defense against mobs and you also have 40% chance to dodge from Acrobatics if you are pure evasion, you will hit yourself with reflect still, in my experience maybe 1 in 3 shots will come back on you. Presuming you are physical damage crit then you need mitigation, lightning coil chest, taste of hate flask, endurance charges, immortal call, take your pick. Or Vaal Pact of course as mark has said.

If you are not acrobatics theres no reason you cant be hybrid armour and evasion in theory, in my experience with Dex sided characters simply turning on grace aura will give you over 7k evasion alone which leaves a lot of gear slots open for stacking armour but be advised you would need strong armour rolls on gear and some armour + evasion nodes for that, its something you build around rather than bolt on. If you are pure ev spec right now probably safer to stay pure ev and look at a coil and/or an immortal call cast on damage taken setup, imo. But for future reference, its a viable option to build a character that way.

If you build a balanced evasion character youll be alright with some kind of phys mitigation installed. If your life and your defenses are at the same level of power as your dps youre not going to 1 shot yourself and youll still kill a phys reflect rare mob in little enough shots that youll only get spiked back once, you might lose 2k hp and you pop a flask, done. My bow ranger has maybe 5k life, 13k evasion and maybe 14k tooltip gmp tornado shot? Dont spec into accuracy, avoid it on gear, dont get the nodes unless its tied in to attack speed, phys damage, something else you are after and its a little sideshow stat, your tooltip will suffer greatly from the loss but its not really a problem, your effective damage when mapping will hardly be effected at all. I would avoid crit multiplier gem if you are feeling it hurt, I dont use it, I use added fire damage instead on tornado and crit multi only on puncture.
Ondars is very strong, it makes you (almost) immune to projectile attacks from monsters

If it also solved reflect easily then it would be OP as hell. You need to have good evasion and sacrifice some accuracy to get decent reflect evade chance

put the equation into some spreadsheet to find out how much accuracy/evasion you need to get your desired reflected damage evade (with or without Jade flask of reflexes)
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No spreadsheet needed, though. It's quite simple math. Assuming evade cap being 95% for reflected (as normal), we need 47.5% base evasion vs _our own_ shots. Assuming 2k effective accuracy end-game (it'd be close to impossible to get much lower, end-game, i guess), and reversing that standard formula, we can calculate required effective evasion E:

47.5% = 1 - 1000 / ( 1000 + (E / 4) ^ 0.8 ), from which,

(47.5% - 1) * ( 1000 + (E/4) ^ 0.8 ) = -1000
(E/4) ^ 0.8 = -1000 / (47.5% - 1) - 1000
(E/4) ^ 0.8 = 904.76, //do 0.8 root to this:
E/4 = 4962.11,
E = 19848.5.

I think getting ~20k evasion is quite unrealistic, huh? ;)

Last edited by Fins_FinsT on Jan 28, 2015, 12:03:19 PM
simple math indeed. But I prefer to get results right away any time I need without having to put the equation in the calculater over and over again. Thats why I use spreadsheeds with predefined formulas

btw Ive made this chart one year ago, in case youre interested..


As I said, when you want reflect immunity via Ondars(edit: which is not supposed to be easy), you have to sacrifice some accuracy (=dps)

10k evasion is easily echievable
20k+ is not unrealistic, pretty sure that some builds that use Queen of the forest have it

and with Jade flask of reflexes? ...
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Last edited by Ludvator on Jan 28, 2015, 1:09:09 PM
It is certainly possible to get that much but requires a high investment into evasion and the Grace aura.
You will usually get around +150-200% increased evasion total on a typical evasion build. Your base evasion will be around 4-4.5k with decent but still cheap gear although a lot more is possible with great gear. 2000 from Grace, 1200 from the chest piece (can be up to 2600), 600 from the helmet and 200 each from boots and gloves. This leads to 10k evasion without a shield for the lower end on an evasion build which coincides with my own experience since most of my evasion based chars are in the range of 10-14k evasion with mostly self found gear.

With great gear and a shield you can reach well around 20k evasion but i personally prefer to simply use a Jade Flask whenever i encounter a reflect pack. The Jade flask adds another 3k base evasion and can additionally have 60-100% extra evasion.
Taking my lower end example from before with a minimum 'of Reflexes' roll on a Jade Flask we would now be at 7000 base evasion and +210% increased evasion (-> 310% total), which will lead to 21.7k evasion during tha flask effect. Again, this coiniced with my own experience since i do have between 24-32k evasion during flask effect on my evasion based builds.
Most of them have around 2500 accuracy so the actual chance to evade reflect is still only around ~60% but there is a huge difference in getting hit by 2/3 or just 1/3 projectiles from reflect.
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Fins_FinsT wrote:
No spreadsheet needed, though. It's quite simple math. Assuming evade cap being 95% for reflected (as normal), we need 47.5% base evasion vs _our own_ shots. Assuming 2k effective accuracy end-game (it'd be close to impossible to get much lower, end-game, i guess), and reversing that standard formula, we can calculate required effective evasion E:

47.5% = 1 - 1000 / ( 1000 + (E / 4) ^ 0.8 ), from which,

(47.5% - 1) * ( 1000 + (E/4) ^ 0.8 ) = -1000
(E/4) ^ 0.8 = -1000 / (47.5% - 1) - 1000
(E/4) ^ 0.8 = 904.76, //do 0.8 root to this:
E/4 = 4962.11,
E = 19848.5.

I think getting ~20k evasion is quite unrealistic, huh? ;)

except you assumed 1k accuracy in your calculation ;). For 2k you much *much* higher evasion (see Ludvator's chart).
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Ludvator wrote:
simple math indeed. But I prefer to get results right away any time I need without having to put the equation in the calculater over and over again. Thats why I use spreadsheeds with predefined formulas

btw Ive made this chart one year ago, in case youre interested..


As I said, when you want reflect immunity via Ondars(edit: which is not supposed to be easy), you have to sacrifice some accuracy (=dps)

10k evasion is easily echievable
20k+ is not unrealistic, pretty sure that some builds that use Queen of the forest have it

and with Jade flask of reflexes? ...

Gee. What a silly mistake i did, about forgetting it ain't 1000 but 2k for the last math. Sigh... Sorry!

20k is not unrealistic? Excellent. I have some details for my 1st serious build being formed - my 1st ranger does not count, even though she is highly successful in normal, breezing through. See, i am thinking to use curse on hit supporting temporal chains and poacher's mark (using the passive to allow 2 curses), delivered to poor things by split arrow. That's 4L, allowing 2 more gems in perspective. Possible considerations include replacing split arrow with ice shot and adding greater multiple projectiles later on. Assuming temporal chains and chill effect of ice shot add up, this will be slowing most things to a crawl. Poacher's mark effects include cutting large chunk of targets' evasion, making following hits easier to land.

And this is where i stumble at one more question i am not certain about: will reflected damage in this case curse myself with those two curses?

If the answer is "no", then this is just one possible method to compensate for intentinally extra low accuracy. I've checked on-hit formulas, it seems to me that even with lowest possible accuracy end-game, (for a bow build which has quite some agility, but no +accuracy% passives), we still talk some 70sh% chance to hit an average mob. Perhaps even 80sh% something. Not too shabby. And weapon switch can be utilized for "some enemies have lots of evasion" cases, - i guess separate bow+quiver can bring in quite a ton of accuracy on their own, considering possible properties of end-game gear and accuracy gem(s?) used.

If the answer is "yes", then i guess this idea becomes waaaay less attractive, as one would need something which gives "can't be cursed" (is there even such a thing in this game?)...

Reading "reflect" in wiki, i learned that reflected damage can't cause status ailments (such as "frozen", "shocked" etc), - but apparently curses are not among those. On the other hand, i don't see it specifically mentioned that curses can be caused by reflected projectile-which-has-curse-on-hit damage.

Any ideas?


P.S. Poacher's mark also provides frenzy charge chance on kill. Being a fan of "glass" (and not-so-glass :D ) "cannons" since D2, i definitely like when my shots do many things at once. I wonder if this idea could be any viable (for solo play) end-game here in PoE - i mean low-accuracy, high-evasion, curse-on-hit, possibly ice-shot archer (using some minions for a meat shield end-game too, of course).
Last edited by Fins_FinsT on Jan 28, 2015, 3:06:53 PM

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