beating vorici at socketing

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torturo wrote:

OP, according to jews, better keep on spamming. You have already invested too much and above the average chance with no success. Every gambler will keep on, as his chances are increased at that point. Also Vorici recipes are a scam and you will simply overpay too much now. You either had to use the recipe, or keep on going now, when you are up to it.

!!Gambler's Fallacy alert!!

nonononononono, his chances to get what he wants right now is the same as when he first started. If he were to feed one orb a day into his item, the chances of getting what he wants would be the same as each individual attemt at a stack of 80. There is no "reserve of bad luck" that depletes and eventually empties that will allow him to get the six-socket. Any orbs he already spent are not a part of this equation.


Anyway, I'll restate my advice:

If it's not the end of the world if another 350 orbs go by and you still don't have your sockets, then go ahead and do it manually. If you absolutely cannot stand losing another 350 orbs however, just use Vorici. His rates are below the expected value, but you don't have to worry about nuking all your orbs for no result.

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Every gambler will keep on, as his chances are increased at that point.

LOL ! So, how much money do you lose every time you gamble? Dude, DON'T go to Vegas !


Ha, poster above beat me to it. :)

If your RNG is as completely fucked up as mine then there is no way in hell you would try and socket OR fuse yourself on anything higher than a 4 socket item. After repeatedly punching myself in the face thousands and thousands of times for 2 years, along came the masters...... thank god.

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gilrad wrote:

nonononononono, his chances to get what he wants right now is the same as when he first started. If he were to feed one orb a day into his item, the chances of getting what he wants would be the same as each individual attemt at a stack of 80. There is no "reserve of bad luck" that depletes and eventually empties that will allow him to get the six-socket. Any orbs he already spent are not a part of this equation.

however, probability is a thing

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xMustard wrote:

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gilrad wrote:

nonononononono, his chances to get what he wants right now is the same as when he first started. If he were to feed one orb a day into his item, the chances of getting what he wants would be the same as each individual attemt at a stack of 80. There is no "reserve of bad luck" that depletes and eventually empties that will allow him to get the six-socket. Any orbs he already spent are not a part of this equation.

however, probability is a thing

That's not how probability works.

The probability of 6-Linking the item on the next try is lower than the the probability of linking it over several thousand orbs, however, the probability of linking it over several thousand orbs doesn't change even if you have used several thousand orbs.

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hellcatq wrote:

Ok, so I had my Newly bought Shavronne's Wrappings that cost me 8 chaos from Elreon and I decided I would actually use it instead of selling it for a profit. I built up 1500 fuses and 350 jewlers so I could make it a 6 link.
I had decided that I would try my chances at the currency rather than buy it from my lv 8 Vorici. 350 jewlers came and went and no 6 sockets. Now I understood it was a gamble, although I am bummed out that I failed, loosing 350 jewlers is not so bad. If I tried and lost the 1500 fuses, well that is a couple months of daily playing for a couple hours and as such I would be very heartbroken, so I have decided that I will just pay Vorici for the actual links.

Now to get it six socketed after spending the 350 jewlers should I
A. save up another 350 and try again
B. just keep using them as I get them until it eventually happens
c. save up and pay Vorici making my total cost 700
What would probably be the best strategy?

It's going to depend on how quickly you can get the Jeweller Orbs back and how much use out of Shav's you're going to be getting. First off, grats on scoring a huge deal from Elreon with getting the Shav's, which saved you a ton of grinding currency to get one in the first place and beating out the RNG from normal drops. Second, you have to understand that each time you use a Jeweller Orb your probability of getting a 6-socket is exactly the same each time. It's not like in a statistical example where you have a hat with 100 numbers on paper in it and each time you don't get the right number you remove the number you pulled out from the hat. It goes right back into it and your odds of getting the right number remain 1:100. There's a lot of people who will allude to the 'Law of Large Numbers' and tell you that 'statistically' your probability of getting a 6-socket increases more and more with each unsuccessful attempt.

From a purely statistical point and assuming you have unlimited chances, that's true. In reality and practice in games like this, it's one of the biggest loads of bullshit that people cling to and preach like it's gospel truth. Mainly because not only of the unlimited chances, but because it also assumes that this occurs over a long period of time. Thing is, you don't have unlimited chances and you likely don't have large amounts of time to where streaks of good RNG are going to balance out the bad ones, blah, blah, blah. Basically what I am getting at is, is if you're really wanting to use the chest piece, learn from your 'mistake' and don't submit yourself to another round of gambling that is just as likely to screw you over as your first attempt. Plus, you already have the 1,500 fusings for the 6-link so take this as a loss and lesson learned for the future.

If you get an item that is not only quite potent and powerful, but something you're going to want to use a lot, then take the safe, reliable way to maximizing its power if you have the means to do so. It's worth it in the long run (to me) rather than trying to 'beat the odds', especially in this game.

and really, let's not quibble over some jewelers orbs ok? You got a shavs from vendor ! Sack up and 6 socket and 6 link it yourself :)

If you really want to use it, I would recommend just selling the unlinked one and buying a 6L. The price difference is always smaller than Vorci's 6L price. 1500 fusing is like 37.5 ex (40fus per ex). However in the market the difference between 6L and a 6s is never that big, max 30ex difference based on my observation.

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xMustard wrote:

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kompaniet wrote:

Use vorici. There is a video of a guy having to use 76 or so fusings for a simple 4 link.

theres also people who 6L in under 76 fusings. what is your point. there are extremes on both ends of the spectrum.

extremes on both ends of the spectrum but only one of them is painful. guess right and win a ferrari.

Once you get your 6 sockets, here is the best way to do it imho, as long as you have the currency reserve. Keep spamming your fuses at it. If you get a 5L, stop. Sell it, buy another shavs, and continue using your fuses. Keep selling the 5L's till you get your 6L. Obviously this requires a lot of liquid currency. I've never tried it on something as expensive as shavs, but it works amazingly with things around 3ex unlinked, like cloak of defiance (that 3ex price based on bloodlines).