Sacrifice Fragment Chances

If people spost data about their corrupted maps runs I will add it to my own and we can work out the drop chances in maps for the fragments. At the moment my data range is small, but is showing a fairly consistent 50% chance. The things I am recording are map run, IIQ, if you use zana device, what level is your zana, and what loot you get (None/Dusk/Dawn/Noon/Midnight/Gem).

So I was collecting data on my sacrifice runs for the last month or so, pre-1.2.4d announcement, as I was finding the drop chance of midnights was far higher than 5%, and gems were definitely not 50%. Of course now it has been stated by GGG, the main point of the data collection is void, however the new values are still yet to be found (as far as I am aware).

I was also testing if quality effected midnight chance and if fragments run on a Zana device were more likely to give midnights. I was also planning to see if the fragment run affected the midnight chance.

From 200 Tests I have compiled the following data.

Note: All percentages are grabbed from pie charts made from the data therefore will likely not equal 100%, but rather 99%.

Assumptions

1. The ratio for drops is still 1:2:3:4
2. The sample is entirely random, being every run for 200 runs, none selectively chosen.


Runs with No Fragment

This data assumes that Fragment and No Fragment runs differ in drop chance.
Number of Runs: 101
Gems: 16, 16%
Dusk: 30, 29%
Dawn: 26, 26%
Noon: 23, 23%
Midnight: 6, 6%
Conclusions

If the ratio for drops is still 1:2:3:4 then this data is NOT consistent with the ratio and needs further testing to give a more accurate measure. It is important to note how much lower gem percentage is than 50%.



With Fragments

This data assumes that Fragment and No Fragment runs differ in drop chance.
Number of Runs: 99
Gems: 17, 17%
Dusk: 37, 38%
Dawn: 21, 21%
Noon: 14, 14%
Midnight: 10, 10%
Conclusions

If the ratio for drops is still 1:2:3:4 then this data is NOT consistent with the ratio and needs further testing to give a more accurate measure. It is important to note how much lower gem percentage is than 50%.



All Runs

This data assumes that Fragment and No Fragment runs have the same drop chance.
Number of Runs: 200
Gems: 33, 17%
Dusk: 67, 33%
Dawn: 47, 23%
Noon: 37, 19%
Midnight: 16, 8%
Conclusions

If the ratio for drops is still 1:2:3:4 then this data is consistent enough with the ratio, 8:16:24:32 is close to the data's 8:19:23:33. This means that the likely chance of a gem drop is 20%.



Results

So from the data it is likely that the drop rates are;
Gems: 20%
Dusk: 32%
Dawn: 24%
Noon: 16%
Midnight: 8%
It is also unlikely that the drop rates differ between fragment run and non-fragment run corrupt instances, however as there IS a difference in the data further testing is needed to determine if this is the case.

Remember that this is assuming the ratio is still 1:2:3:4.


Implications and Suggestions

What this result means is that for every 12.5 fragments you run you should expect on average to receive 1 midnight.
Looking at 100 fragments, 8 will be midnight, 16 will be noon, 24 will be dawn, 32 will be dusk and 20 will be gems. You receive your investment back for 72% of the runs, this means that 28% of the runs will cost you 1 fragment with a 8 in 28 chance or ~28.5% to gain a midnight and a 20 in 28 chance or ~71.5% to gain a gem. The runs I did actually net me 32.6% Midnight and 67.4% Gems. This means that a midnight is worth 3-4x what you paid for the sacrifice fragment + the time spent on the runs.
With the new addition of drops from corrupted map bosses dropping fragments this will significantly reduce the time spent running, as one in two runs will give a fragment, and it is much faster to farm than finding corrupt instances or buying fragments (Assuming the same ratio, with a 50% chance for a drop to occur). This reduced running time will lower the cost of midnights as they will be far more common as you can level, get higher level map drops and get fragments all from the same activity. Atziri will most likely become more accessible, with a drop in prices of her drops as they become more easily obtainable (Don't assume that because getting to Atziri will now be easier that it will be profitable for you based on current prices).

If the new sacrifice fragment drops are poorly received by the community it is also possible to make Atziri more accessible by making a vendor trade for midnights, as 1 midnight is probably equal to 2 noon, 3 dawn, 4 dusk and 2.5 gems (based off the 8% midnight chance) then you could provide a vendor trade for 1 noon (0.5 midnight), 1 dawn (0.34 midnight), 1 dusk (0.25 midnight) and 3 vaal gems, one green, one blue, one red for example (0.4 midnight each), this means your paying what is essentially worth 2.2834 midnights for 1 midnight. This will 'increase' the chance of a midnight from 8% to ~15% (due to 105 attempts resulting in 7 midnight trades on average, at the cost of 21 reruns). Another way would be to balance it by doing 3 vaal gems + 6 vaal fragments, 6 being chosen because of the 28% chance of a 'run' to end in a midnight, so it is a bit more than 2 fragments overpaying for a midnight.

This method would drastically cut the price of midnights OR raise the price of gems and other frags, or a bit of both, however it would make atziri even more accessible without messing with the no sacrifice fragments dropping in maps mentality.


The implications are just my opinion though, thought I would share what I found, if I have made any errors please let me know!
IGN: SirAwesomealot
League: Warbands
Last edited by Tomanomanous on Nov 13, 2014, 7:30:55 PM
I think when Forsake masters came out, it was announced the fragment drop rates were buffed.

20% chance for gems is consistent with what I've been seeing, so fragment drop chances are 8%/16%/24%/32%.

What this means is that if you're running fragments and farming for midnights, you have 8/28=28.57% chance to drop a midnight at the end of a streak.
Question: do you think it will be self sustainable without farming outside maps?
Add a Forsaken Masters questline
https://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/2297942
Do regular corrupted areas have a lower drop chance of a midnight? Because Ive never found one and I have like a dozen of all the others. Now, Ive never used a scrap in the map device (Im assuming thats how it works) or a map and vaal orb (does that work or do you vaal the map? and if you vaal the map is it a huge corrupted area (map size)?).
RIP Diablo franchise

RIP Bird Lovers of Wraeclast <BLÔW>

Congrats Chris & others for cashing out! I don't blame you. I'll be saving money now... unless I start making a lot more. Can't wait to see if you guys start a new studio in six years! RIP GGG
"
ThorOtheBIG wrote:
Do regular corrupted areas have a lower drop chance of a midnight? Because Ive never found one and I have like a dozen of all the others. Now, Ive never used a scrap in the map device (Im assuming thats how it works) or a map and vaal orb (does that work or do you vaal the map? and if you vaal the map is it a huge corrupted area (map size)?).


Short answers

No, it is unlikely that the drop rate changes in 60+ corrupted areas, regardless of how they are made.

When a map is corrupted as of 1.2.4d (Not released yet) its boss will have a chance at a sacrifice fragment.

A corrupted map (using a vaal orb on a map) does not change what area it is into a vaal area, it can level up the base map item to a map tier above (or below) but it wont make it a vaal area. A sacrifice fragment makes a level 66/67/68/69 vaal area.

"
NeroNoah wrote:
Question: do you think it will be self sustainable without farming outside maps?


It is easily self sustainable without farming outside of maps. At the moment I buy 20 frags for 1 exalted, run them and roughly 28.5% (28.5714286%) of the time you will see a midnight at the end of a 'streak'. So on average you should see 5 midnights for your 1 exalted, which sells for 2-2.5 exalted orbs. This will now be far less profitable, and possibly not self sustainable if midnights drop too far, however it makes atziri more accessible so anyone who farms sacrifice frags will lose, and anyone who couldn't do atziri before wins (but it will not gain any more farming value than it has now).

Any predictions may not hold true but they should happen to some degree.
IGN: SirAwesomealot
League: Warbands
Last edited by Tomanomanous on Nov 12, 2014, 11:21:33 PM
"
I think when Forsake masters came out, it was announced the fragment drop rates were buffed.

20% chance for gems is consistent with what I've been seeing, so fragment drop chances are 8%/16%/24%/32%.

What this means is that if you're running fragments and farming for midnights, you have 8/28=28.57% chance to drop a midnight at the end of a streak.


Glad someone else got the same results!
IGN: SirAwesomealot
League: Warbands
Last edited by Tomanomanous on Nov 12, 2014, 11:22:40 PM
Did another 37 runs to use up the last of my fragments, it was actually very midnight heavy, so my new results are skewed a bit. I added it to my current sample, however I may have made an error when expanding my spread sheet, so I will check it out in the morning.

33% Dusk, 23% Dawn, 8% Noon, 10% Midnight, 26% Gem

This is out of line with the theorised 8:16:24:32 however I got about 4 midnights in the time I got 2 gems, and no Noons so a few more runs will smooth this out.

Midnight +2%, Noon -8%, Dawn -1%, Dusk +1%, Gem +6%
IGN: SirAwesomealot
League: Warbands
Last edited by Tomanomanous on Nov 13, 2014, 7:31:23 AM
Currently doing corrupted map runs, such as:

If people post their data on corrupt maps then it should be easy to get a good estimate of what the drop chances are.

A tip for getting corrupt maps, find a cartographers strongbox, if it has +6-8 items or +2-3 rare items then corrupt it, you can get quite a few corrupt maps for 1 vaal orb this way, its best if you don't care about running white maps, because you cant alch after you vaal orb them
IGN: SirAwesomealot
League: Warbands
Last edited by Tomanomanous on Nov 13, 2014, 6:58:10 PM

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