*Item Rarity, boss runs, 1500 dom kills ,disappointment

"

DarthSki44 wrote:

Wow. Whatever. That is EXACTLY how fusing works. You could use 1 or fucking 3000, the chance is the same. It doesn't increase because your click your brains out. They are independent rolls. WHAT IN THE ABSOLUTE FUCK.

The chance for each individual fusing is the same, but because the chance is NOT 100%, the probability of getting a 6L when using 1000 fusings is far higher than the probability of getting a 6L when using 20 fusings. Really, how are you not getting this? The chance for a fusing orb to 6L something is around 0.1%, and you think that a stack of 20 orbs has the same shot at being successful as a stack of 1000? Each individual fusing has that same 0.1% chance, yes, but the probabilities are so low that you should not expect to 6L something with 20 fusings, but you might reasonably expect to 6L something for around 1000 fusings.

Same thing for uniques. If you get 1000 uniques to drop, the odds of one of those being good is a lot higher than if you only got 10 uniques to drop.

Let me try a simpler example, since you appear to be quite confused. Let's say you have a bunch of coins to flip, and your desired outcome is to have a coin land with the "heads" side up. Now, do you have a better chance of getting that outcome if you flip 1 coin, or if you flip 100 coins? If you just flip one coin, your odds are 50-50, but if you flip 100 coins, your odds are so good that there's nearly a 100% chance you would get at least one coin to land with the "heads" side up, even though each individual coin has the same 50-50 chance to land on "heads".

It's the same situation here in PoE. More chances = higher probability of desired outcome.

"

DarthSki44 wrote:

"

tackle70 wrote:

1) Any fusing can 6-Link something
2) Therefore you have the same chance to 6-Link something if you use 20 fusings as if you use 1000

It just doesn't work that way dude.

Wow. Whatever. That is EXACTLY how fusing works. You could use 1 or fucking 3000, the chance is the same. It doesn't increase because your click your brains out. They are independent rolls. WHAT IN THE ABSOLUTE FUCK.

If you are farming Dom for high end uniques specifically with high rarity you are doing it wrong. You would be better off running coward's since the unique drop is certain, and not gated.

If you are farming chaos/alts and want additional chances for any uniques on the way then do Dom with high rarity.

This thread has drifted into the absurd. Truly I'm done. You guys enjoy your own version of PoE.

They are different events. A = "Succeeding in getting a 6-link when using 20 fusings", B = "Succeeding in getting a 6-link when using 1000 fusings" and C = "Succeeding in getting a 6-link when using one fusing" are different events with different probabilities.

Given P(C) = p, then P(A) = 1 - (1-p)^20 and P(B) = 1 - (1-p)^1000

Note that there is a difference between the phrases "Succeeding in getting a 6-link when using 20 fusings" and "Succeeding in getting a 6-link during 1 specific try in a streak of 20 tries". For the latter, the probability is p, since each individual try are independent from previous tries.

Edit: Would also like to point out that your signature "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt." is very appropriate for this situation.

*Makes an absolutely ridiculous statement*
*I'm done, I win*

Denial power 9000 and rising.

"

choopk1993 wrote:

#include<stdio.h>


double support_pack()
{


double Unique_drop_rate;

Unique_drop_rate=1000000000+1;

return (Unique_drop_rate);
}

double famous_streamer()
{


Unique_drop_rate=1000+1;

return (Unique_drop_rate);

}
int main()
{

char MF[4]=cake;
double WIN,win;


cout<<"The"<<MF[4]<<is a lie";

WIN=support_pack();
win=famous_streamer();


return 0;

}

I like you!

What the hell? I am literally stunned in this thread. Nothing about my comments are foolish. They are simply a reflection of PoE's gameplay mechanics and basic statistical math.

I've made two statements. Both of which are 100% factually true. I've made no edits in my posts and they are complete in line with current PoE mechanics.

1. IIR does not effect specific unique roll.
2. Fusing chances do not increase based on number of fusings used.

All this other madness is useless, or attempts to change the equations in which I was referring to, to begin with. This is why I attempted to leave.

-You people are exactly why fusing lotteries exist. "Oh 847 fusings used! Must be ready to hit!" smh...

-You people are exactly why there are threads "1500 Dom runs, 400% Rarity, No Shavs, WTF" smh...

*Edit - Grammar

Said he's done and leaving
Came back, twice.

DarthSki44 confirmed troll, gratz

"

DarthSki44 wrote:

2. Fusing chances do not increase based on number of fusings used.

You previously stated that you agreed with
"2) Therefore you have the same chance to 6-Link something if you use 20 fusings as if you use 1000."

Your agreement is not equivalent to the statement you made in the quote I cited at the start of this post.

A issue is clarity in statements. While my quote of you, refers the chance of an invdividual fusing to succeed, the quote you agreed with was never speaking about the chance of an invidicidual fusings, it was strictly referring to the combined chance of multiple fusings.

"

DarthSki44 wrote:

trolololol

Assuming 1/1000 chance for a fusing to 6L, which we know from community analysis is close to the actual probability:

The chance of getting a 6L with 20 fusings is roughly 2%. The chance of getting a 6L with 1000 fusings is roughly 64%. The chance of getting a 6L with 2000 fusings is roughly 86%.

If you don't understand that, then stop posting in this thread, stop trolling, and go take an elementary math class.

FYI: % chance of 6L after X number of fusings = (1-(0.999^X))*100

-EDIT on the off chance you are just confused and not trolling-
If you think I'm talking about "after 999 fusings used and no success, that 1000th fusing has a 64% chance of success!" then you are completely misreading my posts, misunderstanding what I'm explaining, and misunderstanding how probabilities work.

The 1000th fusing has the same 1/1000 chance of success as the 1st fusing. However, the chance that you will 6L something successfully by the time you use 1000 fusings is ~64% - much higher than the chance you will 6L something successfully by the time you use 20 fusings (~2%).

And this same thing is true for uniques. The 1000th unique you find has no better chance to be a Shavs than the 1st unique you find, but the chance you will have found a Shavs within 1000 uniques is much higher than that the 1st unique you get will be a Shavs.

If theres one thing I learned in PoE, its that there is literally no point in "farming" uniques. No matter if you run with 9999 iir/iiq or 0 iir/iiq you will still get only the bottom tier uniques. More iir/iiq will only net you just more useless uniques. Just play normally like you would to and if rngesus smiles at you and all stars are alligned you will get something worth more then 1ex.

"

So where to start. I started rampage just when forsaken masters got live, i quickly got to level 69 with my shadow, then i realized i can't really proceed because of lack of items. I decided to spend all my currency on Mfing gear, and i set up a 430 IIR & 41% quantity culler build and started organising dominus runs. i choosed boss runs, because i've read a post on forums where GGG staff said they are buffing drop rates to make boss runs more rewarding. I got from 69 to 79 just in dominus runs, didn't do a single map. with like a total of 30-40 dies i did between 1100-1200 kills in that period. I didn't get a single drop with the value over 1 Exalt, i have to state that i didn't even saw one dropped. After reaching lvl 79 i got rly bored of culling and organising runs, so i sold all my eq and set up a runner character what i managed to lvl 84 on maps too ofc i didn't finish running dom. So far i've reached 1500 kills ( +-25) and still i haven't seen anything dropped.I won't stop playing poe or anything like that, because i still think it's a great game and much of fun. i'd just like to get some information about other player's experience, and if possible i'd like to know the mathematical chance of a t1 unique drop at dom run, or just the amount of dom runs you need to do to get a t1 unique. Thanks for any replies!! Sorry if my grammar is bad, english exam was long ago. :)

I find this somewhat hard to believe. Even while doing minute farms of Merveil on Merciless for the alts, I got plenty of uniques that were worth at least an Exalted. But 1500 Dom kills and nothing? I doubt it. I guess its important to note that I've always played in hardcore leagues so that might have something to do with it.