Is data rly enogh to balance around it? I think a key thing u missed is the problem that LOWLVL maps dropp in 79+ I have never felt a more frustrating feeling in Poe then getting 68-75 maps in a 80-82 map it feels worse then eteranL/exalting I hope a person that actually plays the game @GGG can tell u more about it its disgusting feeling.
The stats aren't all we use. In fact the staff in GGG who run live maps were of the opinion that there would not be a literal wall, it was mostly play style.
In this case the stats, said, no, there is a real problem that needs addressing.
Building a base of lower maps and working your way up slowly in no way 'reduces variance' of the map drops. Map drops are the same in a 74+ maps whether you have 1 or 1000 of them.
Sure, slowly building that base and working up will help you sustain the map level you built up to for a longer period of time. However, you still had to run hundreds of maps that were low level to get to that point. This is statistically no different than running your highest level map and resetting to the lower maps to get to that level again repeatedly. You end up with the same exact amount in the end.
The common hardcore method of using low level maps and working their way up is just a direct effect of out-leveling and out-gearing the content to stay safe-- The same thing HC players do throughout the entire game. HC players don't mind this because the play style of trivializing content to stay alive is the norm for them.
While when running a map doesn't matter (and "building a map base" provides psychological benefit, rather than statistical benefit), the hardcore players run lower level maps run that wouldn't be run on a standard league.
That the leagues had a very different shape was odd to us, and something we had to examine and see why. The "wall" was much more pronounced on Standard and Warbands than Tempest.
I think it's very important that the bugs with instances crashing are fixed along with this. Part of the reason I've been reluctant to run higher maps, and have either been doing lower content or not playing at all, is that I've already had a few 76s lost.
I totally agree. Map loss has affected this. While we have improved this, and fewer maps are lost, it is still being worked on.